711 Thomas Bridge Rd · Adwolf, VA 24354

$86,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1987 0.92 ac lot $69/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold as is - where is. This is a medicaid sell, call agent for details on sell and property information. Owner can not make any repairs to meet certain loan requirements, so would have to be a cash purchase. Large deep lot. Home needs. work, good rental potential or remove and have a beautiful homesite.

Key facts

• Large deep lot
• 0.92 acre lot
• Built 1987

Tags

• LARGE DEEP LOT
• GOOD RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.9% in Adwolf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#349 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $599 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,806 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.02%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,495
• List price: $86,600
• Delta: -54.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-2,784
• Equity at exit: $12,912

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $12,103
• Equity at exit: $7,488

Cash invested: $24,248 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24354

• Home prices YoY: -6.8%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$454
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $511/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $759

Max offer price $86,600

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $201	+0% $176	+5% $152	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $138	+0% $176	+5% $215	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $198	base $176	+0.5pp $154	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,650
• Closing costs: $2,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $86,600 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,600 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $86,600 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $86,600 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,600 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,600 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,600 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $86,600 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $86,600 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $86,600 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $86,600 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $86,600 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $86,600 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $86,600 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $86,600 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,600 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-02-28
    listed $86,600 Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Sold as is - where is. This is a medicaid sell, call agent for details on sell and property information. Owner can not make any repairs to meet certain loan requirements, so would have to be a cash purchase. Large deep lot. Home needs. work, good rental potential or remove and have a beautiful homesite.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $511 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 39.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,851
• − Property taxes: −$511
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$943
• − Management: −$943
• − Depreciation: −$2,519
• Taxable income: $785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$188
• After-tax cash flow: $1,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smyth County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103520
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $36,901
• Composite: 45.2/100
• National rank: #2672
• State rank: #89 of 131 in VA

Livability — Adwolf

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #13855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,984

Population outlook (Smyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,740 people
• By 2030: 28,593 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 26,091 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 23,629 · -20.5%
• By 2075: 18,365 · -38.2%
• By 2100: 13,697 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.22%
• Current HPI: 265.5586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Listed $86,600 SWVAR

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $511 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.