3051 Keystone · Bethlehem, PA 18020

$189,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 0.40 ac lot Est $357k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision and creativity to 3051 Keystone Street in desirable Bethlehem Township! Situated on a spacious . 40-acre corner lot, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod offers an excellent opportunity for homeowners, investors, or renovation enthusiasts looking to build equity. With approximately 1,356 square feet of living space, this classic 1.5-story home features a functional layout and solid potential for modernization and customization to suit today's lifestyles. One of the property's standout features is the large detached garage, offering ample space for vehicles, storage, hobbies, or workshop use. The circular driveway provides convenient access, additional parking, and enhanced curb

Key facts

• Great location
• Outdoor space
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family home; Above-grade finished area reported
• Construction: Tile roof; Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.404 acre; Zoned residential

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom (12 x 12); Second-floor bedroom (12 x 10); Second-floor bedroom (12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main bathroom, 8 x 8)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Radiator heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.3% in Bethlehem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $190k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.42%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $356,628
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3042 Middletown Rd	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,463 (+8%)	4mo	$295,000	$202	78
2934 Keystone St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,285 (-5%)	11mo	$315,000	$245	76
2134 Livingston St	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,376 (+2%)	7mo	$380,100	$276	65
3141 Keystone St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-13%)	10mo	$339,900	$289	61
2520 Riegel St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,463 (+8%)	1mo	$312,000	$213	59
1740 Lansdale Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-9%)	2mo	$325,000	$263	56
1922 9th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+3%)	11mo	$349,900	$251	55
2118 8th St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,272 (-6%)	6mo	$304,000	$239	53
1715 Lansdale Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-15%)	2mo	$332,500	$289	42
3285 Lime St	0.67mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,476 (+9%)	3mo	$526,500	$357	38
2415 6th St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	9mo	$352,000	$306	36
1553 1st St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,551 (+14%)	11mo	$365,000	$235	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,377
• Equity at exit: $28,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $49,335
• Equity at exit: $16,423

Cash invested: $53,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18020

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,910/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $189,950

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $658	-5% $604	+0% $551	+5% $497	+10% $443
Rent	-10% $355	-5% $453	+0% $551	+5% $648	+10% $746
Rate	-1.0pp $646	-0.5pp $599	base $551	+0.5pp $501	+1.0pp $451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,488
• Closing costs: $5,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2955 Middletown Rd Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,100	$1.28	15d	1	0.13mi
2815 Jefferson St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,000	$2.50	3d	1	0.26mi
2897 Easton Ave Unit 303 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,100	$1.83	24d	1	0.36mi
2229 Rodgers St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1415	$2,300	$1.63	24d	1	0.56mi
2121 7th St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	44d	1	0.58mi
2627 Nottingham Rd Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1756	$2,800	$1.59	3d	1	0.58mi
1471 2nd St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	1.5	1800	$3,145	$1.75	3d	1	0.67mi
3547 Carter Rd Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1800	$2,495	$1.39	44d	1	0.80mi
1416 Livingston St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,147	$2.14	3d	20	0.80mi
2234 Easton Ave Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1254	$2,395	$1.91	3d	1	0.86mi
2321 Linford St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,050	$1.78	24d	1	0.96mi
1057 Decatur St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,650	$1.49	45d	1	0.99mi
440 New St Freemansburg, PA	3.0	1.5	1744	$2,400	$1.38	3d	1	1.09mi
3025 East Blvd Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	44d	1	1.11mi
3157 Santee Rd Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	44d	1	1.12mi
1019 Westbury Cir Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,875	$1.50	3d	1	1.21mi
2066 Chester Rd Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1550	$2,150	$1.39	44d	1	1.24mi
1410 Johnston Dr Bethlehem, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	833	$2,295	$2.76	3d	1	1.25mi
1240 Pembroke Rd #1 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1249	$1,795	$1.44	44d	1	1.25mi
1240 Pembroke Rd #2 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	44d	1	1.25mi
315 Clearfield St Unit A Freemansburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	3d	1	1.27mi
315 Clearfield St Freemansburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	3d	1	1.27mi
214 Clearfield St Freemansburg, PA	3.0	1.0	966	$1,700	$1.76	3d	1	1.38mi
830 Media St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1128	$2,100	$1.86	44d	1	1.43mi
830 Media St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1128	$2,100	$1.86	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,950 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,950 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $189,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,910 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,910 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,640
• − Property taxes: −$3,910
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$5,526
• Taxable income: $3,876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$930
• After-tax cash flow: $5,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,124
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5068
• State rank: #342 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bethlehem

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #1122

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, PA
• County: Northampton County · 236,814 people
• City population: 129,661
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 21,204
• Household income: $126,166
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 249.0

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Russian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.51%
• Current HPI: 206.2873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+206.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $189,950 GLVRMLS
• 2005-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,910 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.