11811 Dunster Ln · Bradenton, FL 34219

$385,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,606 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1999 7,667 sqft lot Est $345k · 12% over $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well priced 4 bedroom home in the desired Kingsfield subdivision. This property offers lots of value for money with a very functional floor plan, a private screened in pool for entertaining and an eye-catching view that overlooks a tranquil lake to the rear. This is a well kept home with desirable features such as an open kitchen overlooking the main areas, eat in breakfast nook and a breakfast bar, laminate wood and ceramic tile in main areas and baths, tasteful wall coloring, open floor plan with vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. The Kingsfield community also has a large community pool as well as other recreational facilities. Located close to I75, it is an easy commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota & Bradenton. Homes in Kingsfield sell quickly so don't miss an opportunity to see this one!

Key facts

• New pool pump
• Waterfront pond lot
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• WATERFRONT POND LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW POOL PUMP
• HURRICANE FABRIC PROTECTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $385k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,601 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,290
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11811 Dunster Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,606 (0%)	1mo	$380,000	$237	100
11809 Shrewsbury Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,601 (-0%)	4mo	$345,000	$215	91
11814 Colyar Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,570 (-2%)	9mo	$315,000	$201	77
4326 Forest Creek Trl	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-2%)	3mo	$305,000	$193	76
4211 Malickson Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,586 (-1%)	3mo	$331,500	$209	68
4608 Oliver Manor Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,581 (-2%)	5mo	$370,000	$234	66
11750 Fennemore Way	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (+10%)	6mo	$485,000	$276	62
12026 Warwick Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (-1%)	9mo	$355,000	$224	61
4565 Summerlake Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (-5%)	8mo	$325,000	$213	60
4607 Summerlake Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-7%)	4mo	$300,000	$201	60
4643 Summerlake	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-7%)	6mo	$404,000	$270	54
3516 Woodland Fern Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,743 (+8%)	4mo	$375,000	$215	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-83,086
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-121,063
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,689/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,137

Max offer price $351,318

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11764 Shirburn Cir Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1606	$2,526	$1.57	3d	1	0.21mi
4213 Berkeley Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,485	$1.42	2d	1	0.36mi
3511 Wild Blossom Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	12d	1	0.61mi
11639 Old Florida Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1692	$2,350	$1.39	20d	1	0.67mi
3775 Manorwood Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2122	$3,300	$1.56	16d	1	0.92mi
2910 122nd Ter E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$3,300	$1.80	23d	1	0.93mi
11106 Sand Pine Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,579	$1.46	3d	1	1.04mi
12352 49th St E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2209	$2,750	$1.24	23d	1	1.09mi
10610 Eddy Cir Parrish, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$2,495	$2.30	2d	89	1.32mi
13019 Bluff Oak Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2152	$2,975	$1.38	16d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   listed $385,000 Active
3. 2018-03-15
   soldstatus $250,000
4. 2018-03-12
   soldstatus $250,000 Sold 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Well priced 4 bedroom home in the desired Kingsfield subdivision. This property offers lots of value for money with a very functional floor plan, a private screened in pool for entertaining and an eye-catching view that overlooks a tranquil lake to the rear. This is a well kept home with desirable features such as an open kitchen overlooking the main areas, eat in breakfast nook and a breakfast bar, laminate wood and ceramic tile in main areas and baths, tasteful wall coloring, open floor plan with vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. The Kingsfield community also has a large community pool as well as other recreational facilities. Located close to I75, it is an easy commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota & Bradenton. Homes in Kingsfield sell quickly so don't miss an opportunity to see this one!

5. 2018-02-05
   status Pending 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Well priced 4 bedroom home in the desired Kingsfield subdivision. This property offers lots of value for money with a very functional floor plan, a private screened in pool for entertaining and an eye-catching view that overlooks a tranquil lake to the rear. This is a well kept home with desirable features such as an open kitchen overlooking the main areas, eat in breakfast nook and a breakfast bar, laminate wood and ceramic tile in main areas and baths, tasteful wall coloring, open floor plan with vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. The Kingsfield community also has a large community pool as well as other recreational facilities. Located close to I75, it is an easy commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota & Bradenton. Homes in Kingsfield sell quickly so don't miss an opportunity to see this one!

6. 2018-01-13
   listed $250,000 Active 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Well priced 4 bedroom home in the desired Kingsfield subdivision. This property offers lots of value for money with a very functional floor plan, a private screened in pool for entertaining and an eye-catching view that overlooks a tranquil lake to the rear. This is a well kept home with desirable features such as an open kitchen overlooking the main areas, eat in breakfast nook and a breakfast bar, laminate wood and ceramic tile in main areas and baths, tasteful wall coloring, open floor plan with vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. The Kingsfield community also has a large community pool as well as other recreational facilities. Located close to I75, it is an easy commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota & Bradenton. Homes in Kingsfield sell quickly so don't miss an opportunity to see this one!

7. 2016-10-03
   soldstatus $228,000
8. 2016-09-28
   soldstatus $228,000 Sold 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   Well maintained 4 bedroom home in the desired Kingsfield Subdivision. This house is a rare gem in this community at this price. The property has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and the fabulous pool overlooks a tranquil lake to the rear. Having recently undergone a huge maintenance overhaul this home has been re-painted completely on the outside and inside as well as most of the flooring being replaced to create a light, fresh feel you can move straight into. The Kingsfield community also has a large community pool as well as other recreational facilities. Located close to I75 its an easy commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota & Bradenton.

9. 2016-08-19
   status Pending 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   Well maintained 4 bedroom home in the desired Kingsfield Subdivision. This house is a rare gem in this community at this price. The property has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and the fabulous pool overlooks a tranquil lake to the rear. Having recently undergone a huge maintenance overhaul this home has been re-painted completely on the outside and inside as well as most of the flooring being replaced to create a light, fresh feel you can move straight into. The Kingsfield community also has a large community pool as well as other recreational facilities. Located close to I75 its an easy commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota & Bradenton.

10. 2016-08-10
    listed $229,000 Active 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    Well maintained 4 bedroom home in the desired Kingsfield Subdivision. This house is a rare gem in this community at this price. The property has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and the fabulous pool overlooks a tranquil lake to the rear. Having recently undergone a huge maintenance overhaul this home has been re-painted completely on the outside and inside as well as most of the flooring being replaced to create a light, fresh feel you can move straight into. The Kingsfield community also has a large community pool as well as other recreational facilities. Located close to I75 its an easy commute to Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota & Bradenton.

11. 2016-05-13
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,689 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$506/yr (+$42/mo · 18.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$2,689
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,780
• − Management: −$2,780
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$9,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,181
• After-tax cash flow: $-107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+156.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-12 Sold (MLS) $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-13 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $228,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-28 Sold (MLS) $228,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-10 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,689 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.