The Mesa Verde (326) Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$234,590

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prepare dinner in the Mesa Verde's kitchen with an open concept layout. The primary suite is tucked away where you'll enjoy your own private oasis.

Key facts

• Private oasis
• Open concept layout
• Listed 123 days

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE OASIS

🏗️ New construction. The $234,590 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $298,876.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-527 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 3051 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,727 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.56%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,876
• List price: $234,590
• Delta: -17.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Sunrise Ranch Dr	1.06mi	3/2.0	1,426 (0%)	1mo	$229,940	$161	64
18613 Timber Glen Ct	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,426 (0%)	2mo	$265,940	$186	64
415 Sunrise Ranch Dr	1.06mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-2%)	1mo	$275,990	$196	62
396 Sunrise Ranch Dr	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	3mo	$261,940	$182	61
18718 Timber Glen Dr	1.11mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+2%)	3mo	$225,940	$156	60
17793 Hanson Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+18%)	2mo	$259,900	$155	60
136 April Cv	0.97mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+10%)	1mo	$265,000	$170	48
18406 Sunrise Maple Dr	0.76mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+11%)	3mo	$225,000	$143	45
388 Sunrise Ranch Dr	1.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+10%)	2mo	$272,990	$174	42
18499 Sunrise Pines Dr	0.93mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (+11%)	2mo	$212,500	$134	40
231 Cool Cv	0.86mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+15%)	0mo	$195,000	$118	40
208 Charles Ridge Dr	1.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,663 (+17%)	0mo	$235,000	$141	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-86,940
• Equity at exit: $44,563

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-138,158
• Equity at exit: $25,841

Cash invested: $83,685 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $209,900 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 70% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +38.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 3051
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,567
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,483/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,615

Max offer price $222,601

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-321	-5% $-424	+0% $-527	+5% $-630	+10% $-734
Rent	-10% $-681	-5% $-604	+0% $-527	+5% $-450	+10% $-373
Rate	-1.0pp $-377	-0.5pp $-451	base $-527	+0.5pp $-605	+1.0pp $-683

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,719
• Closing costs: $8,966
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	139d	1	0.17mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	33d	1	0.17mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	120d	1	0.41mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	139d	1	0.87mi
18544 Meadow Point Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,950	$1.33	139d	1	0.90mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	139d	1	0.93mi
16897 W Forrestal Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$950	$0.98	44d	1	0.93mi
16897 W Forrestal Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$950	$0.98	32d	1	0.93mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	108d	1	0.93mi
16917 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,275	$1.21	64d	1	0.93mi
16922 W Hammon Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$900	$0.99	45d	1	0.93mi
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	139d	1	0.93mi
10707 Scenic Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,600	$0.93	3d	1	0.95mi
507 Lake View Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,375	$1.09	10d	1	0.99mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	139d	1	1.00mi
16926 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	54d	1	1.01mi
607 Lake View Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,499	$1.25	139d	1	1.02mi
606 Moonwalk St Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1641	$1,714	$1.04	11d	1	1.04mi
223 Fantasy Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,995	$1.09	65d	1	1.05mi
16645 E Forrestal Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,395	$1.31	32d	1	1.19mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	139d	1	1.23mi
318 Lazy Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,745	$0.97	55d	1	1.26mi
801 Omeara Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	11d	1	1.29mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	139d	1	1.45mi
109 Seminole Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1868	$1,597	$0.85	34d	1	1.48mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	139d	1	1.49mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	139d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $232,940

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan: The Mesa Verde (326)
• Construction: New construction (plan)Model/plan name: The Mesa Verde (326)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,426

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (The Mesa Verde)Active new construction listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $234,590 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $234,590 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $234,590 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $234,590 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   pricedays on market $234,590 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $245,540 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $245,540 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $275,540 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $275,540 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $275,540 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $275,540 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $275,540 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $275,540 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $275,540 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $285,990 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $285,990 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $285,990 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $239,540 Active 100 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $239,540 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $239,540 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    pricedays on market $239,540 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $263,040 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $263,040 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $263,040 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    pricedays on market $263,040 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $265,540 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    price $265,540 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $244,390 Active 89 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    price $244,390 Active 88 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $249,390 Active 88 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $249,390 Active 87 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $249,390 Active 86 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $249,390 Active 85 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    pricedays on market $249,390 Active 84 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $229,590 Active 83 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    price $229,590 Active 82 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $234,590 Active 82 DOM
38. 2026-08-12
    days on market $239,590 Active 81 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $239,590 Active 80 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $239,590 Active 79 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $239,590 Active 78 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    days on market $239,590 Active 77 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $239,590 Active 75 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $239,590 Active 74 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $239,590 Active 73 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $239,590 Active 72 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $239,590 Active 69 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $239,590 Active 67 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $239,590 Active 66 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    pricedays on market $229,940 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,742
• − Property taxes: −$4,483
• − Insurance: −$1,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$8,695
• Taxable loss: −$11,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,130–$21,390 screening

The Mesa Verde is in good condition with a cosmetic level of renovation, featuring an open concept kitchen and well-maintained exterior. Simple updates like painting and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stewart Creek El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $232,940

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan: The Mesa Verde (326)
• Construction: New construction (plan)Model/plan name: The Mesa Verde (326)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,426

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (The Mesa Verde)Active new construction listing