The Gardenia Plan · Shreveport, LA 71129

$59,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 421 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Forest Estates, an all-age, pet-friendly community designed for comfort, fun, and convenience. Our neighborhood features a refreshing pool and a vibrant playground, creating the perfect setting for relaxation and family activities. Located near shopping, dining, and essential services, everything you need is just moments away. Discover a welcoming community where families thrive and neighbors become friends.

Key facts

• Vibrant playground
• Refreshing pool
• Listed 421 days

Tags

• PET-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• REFRESHING POOL
• VIBRANT PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. The $59,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $227,129.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-490 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 5.7% in Shreveport — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 421 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 421 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.24%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,129
• List price: $59,999
• Delta: -73.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-67,961
• Equity at exit: $33,866

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-99,240
• Equity at exit: $19,638

Cash invested: $63,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71129

• Home prices YoY: -27.2%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,191
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,407/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,987

Max offer price $156,297

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,782
• Closing costs: $6,814
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,999 Active 421 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,999 Active 420 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,999 Active 419 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,999 Active 418 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,999 Active 416 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,999 Active 415 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,999 Active 413 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,999 Active 412 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,999 Active 411 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,999 Active 410 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,999 Active 407 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,999 Active 406 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,999 Active 405 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,999 Active 404 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,999 Active 403 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,999 Active 402 DOM
17. 2025-04-23
    listed $59,999 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Welcome to Forest Estates, an all-age, pet-friendly community designed for comfort, fun, and convenience. Our neighborhood features a refreshing pool and a vibrant playground, creating the perfect setting for relaxation and family activities. Located near shopping, dining, and essential services, everything you need is just moments away. Discover a welcoming community where families thrive and neighbors become friends.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,723
• − Property taxes: −$3,407
• − Insurance: −$1,136
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$6,607
• Taxable loss: −$10,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,422
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. A fresh coat of paint, new roof, and landscaping would significantly enhance its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Major landscaping — General unkempt appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal
• Resale repair roof — A new roof can add years to the home's lifespan and improve its value
• Rental landscape and fence — A well-maintained exterior can attract renters and improve tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · General unkempt appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal ↑
• Resale repair roof — A new roof can add years to the home's lifespan and improve its value ↑
• Rental landscape and fence — A well-maintained exterior can attract renters and improve tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Shreveport

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #19730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shreveport, LA
• City population: 164,123
• Population (ZIP): 12,395

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 30% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.87%
• Current HPI: 141.6996
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-23 Listed $59,999 Zillow