415 Old Spanish Trl · Waveland, MS 39576

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 10,018 sqft lot Est $266k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly renovated home and move in ready! New roof, new floors in main living space and bedrooms, scraped ceilings, new paint throughout, new light fixtures, new Bathroom faucets, and updated cabinets in kitchen and bathrooms. Close to schools, shopping, restaurants and beach. Green space behind home. Partially fenced in yard. Great for kids and pets. Storm shutters on all windows and front door. Call for appointment to view home.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($223/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Waveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#199 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay St Louis Waveland School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #21 of 130 in MS (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,310 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,980
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 Old Spanish Trl	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-1%)	4mo	$239,500	$150	95
415 Old Spanish Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,733 (+8%)	0mo	$249,900	$144	87
126 Spanish Cv	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,707 (+6%)	1mo	$217,000	$127	68
103 Spanish Cv	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+11%)	7mo	$295,000	$165	64
638 Fellgrass St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+6%)	4mo	$349,900	$206	63
524 Seventh St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-3%)	1mo	$317,500	$203	61
221 Music St	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,650 (+2%)	2mo	$239,000	$145	60
117 Spanish Cv	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,403 (-13%)	3mo	$189,500	$135	60
640 Fellgrass St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-12%)	6mo	$299,900	$212	55
832 Combel St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,851 (+15%)	2mo	$349,000	$189	54
212 Music St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-5%)	11mo	$264,900	$173	53
806 Kyle Cir	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+14%)	5mo	$255,000	$139	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,417
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-33,228
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39576

• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,127/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,910

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $160	-5% $89	+0% $19	+5% $-52	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-58	+0% $19	+5% $95	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $82	base $19	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 2021-09-30
   soldstatus 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Newly renovated home and move in ready! New roof, new floors in main living space and bedrooms, scraped ceilings, new paint throughout, new light fixtures, new Bathroom faucets, and updated cabinets in kitchen and bathrooms. Close to schools, shopping, restaurants and beach. Green space behind home. Partially fenced in yard. Great for kids and pets. Storm shutters on all windows and front door. Call for appointment to view home.

4. 2021-07-03
   listed $199,000 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Newly renovated home and move in ready! New roof, new floors in main living space and bedrooms, scraped ceilings, new paint throughout, new light fixtures, new Bathroom faucets, and updated cabinets in kitchen and bathrooms. Close to schools, shopping, restaurants and beach. Green space behind home. Partially fenced in yard. Great for kids and pets. Storm shutters on all windows and front door. Call for appointment to view home.

5. 2021-03-19
   soldstatus 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   This is a nice 3BR/2BA home in a rising neighborhood in Waveland, MS. Large bedrooms, large bathrooms, and an open living area make this home perfect for a growing family. A fenced backyard is perfect for pets or children and the covered back patio gives parents the perfect view. One of the bedrooms is missing flooring but gives a new buyer an opportunity to pick out exactly what they want. In this area, this home will go super quickly.

6. 2021-03-04
   listed $125,000 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   This is a nice 3BR/2BA home in a rising neighborhood in Waveland, MS. Large bedrooms, large bathrooms, and an open living area make this home perfect for a growing family. A fenced backyard is perfect for pets or children and the covered back patio gives parents the perfect view. One of the bedrooms is missing flooring but gives a new buyer an opportunity to pick out exactly what they want. In this area, this home will go super quickly.

7. 1994-04-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,974 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$847/yr (+$71/mo · 75.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,127
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$998
• After-tax cash flow: $1,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay St Louis Waveland School District
• NCES district ID: 2800570
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,774
• Composite: 39.27/100
• National rank: #3998
• State rank: #21 of 130 in MS

Livability — Waveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #18110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waveland, MS
• City population: 6,249
• Population (ZIP): 6,249

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,161 people
• By 2030: 54,753 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 59,242 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 62,417 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 68,168 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 69,212 · +32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.7) · D 20.1% · R 78.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -58.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.7 2020: R+55.5 2016: R+59.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.70%
• Current HPI: 218.6299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-22 Listed $249,900 MLSU
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-07-03 Listed $199,000 MLSU
• 2021-03-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-03-04 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 1994-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,127 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.