Taft Plan · Conroe, TX 77378

$209,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 687 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The one-story Taft offers easy living for families and couples alike, featuring an exclusive owner's suite with spa-like bath, and a pair of secondary bedrooms for family members of guests. A separate dining room and gourmet kitchen provide the perfect backdrop for entertaining family or friends, and the family room offers a casual retreat.

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Separate dining room
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• EXCLUSIVE OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $209,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $242,175.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 687 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 687 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,175
• List price: $209,990
• Delta: -13.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10703 Sora Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	2mo	$241,440	$160	97
10719 Sora Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	3mo	$236,520	$156	95
10726 Sora Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	2mo	$235,300	$156	95
10747 Sora Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	1mo	$239,140	$158	93
500 Kinglet Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+4%)	2mo	$235,000	$149	89
10730 Sora Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+4%)	3mo	$242,910	$154	86
10778 Sora Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,570 (+4%)	1mo	$243,110	$155	83
406 Kinglet Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,619 (+7%)	3mo	$239,290	$148	75
10782 Sora Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-10%)	3mo	$228,290	$167	72
962 Oak Falls Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-2%)	4mo	$235,000	$159	66
968 Oak Lynn Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-5%)	3mo	$215,000	$150	65
976 Oak Falls Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,287 (-15%)	6mo	$205,000	$159	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-52,558
• Equity at exit: $36,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-73,029
• Equity at exit: $20,939

Cash invested: $67,809 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,270
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$303 /mo · $3,633/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,119

Max offer price $220,593

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,544
• Closing costs: $7,265
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	43d	1	1.21mi
27 Lakeway St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.5	1500	$1,400	$0.93	12d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,990 Active 687 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,990 Active 686 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,990 Active 685 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,990 Active 684 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,990 Active 682 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,990 Active 678 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,990 Active 677 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,990 Active 676 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,990 Active 673 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $209,990 Active 672 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $206,990 Active 671 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $206,990 Active 670 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $206,990 Active 669 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    price $206,990 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    The one-story Taft offers easy living for families and couples alike, featuring an exclusive owner's suite with spa-like bath, and a pair of secondary bedrooms for family members of guests. A separate dining room and gourmet kitchen provide the perfect backdrop for entertaining family or friends, and the family room offers a casual retreat.

15. 2026-03-03
    price $203,990 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    The one-story Taft offers easy living for families and couples alike, featuring an exclusive owner's suite with spa-like bath, and a pair of secondary bedrooms for family members of guests. A separate dining room and gourmet kitchen provide the perfect backdrop for entertaining family or friends, and the family room offers a casual retreat.

16. 2026-01-29
    price $201,990 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    The one-story Taft offers easy living for families and couples alike, featuring an exclusive owner's suite with spa-like bath, and a pair of secondary bedrooms for family members of guests. A separate dining room and gourmet kitchen provide the perfect backdrop for entertaining family or friends, and the family room offers a casual retreat.

17. 2025-04-03
    price $231,990 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    The one-story Taft offers easy living for families and couples alike, featuring an exclusive owner's suite with spa-like bath, and a pair of secondary bedrooms for family members of guests. A separate dining room and gourmet kitchen provide the perfect backdrop for entertaining family or friends, and the family room offers a casual retreat.

18. 2024-09-18
    price $230,990 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    The one-story Taft offers easy living for families and couples alike, featuring an exclusive owner's suite with spa-like bath, and a pair of secondary bedrooms for family members of guests. A separate dining room and gourmet kitchen provide the perfect backdrop for entertaining family or friends, and the family room offers a casual retreat.

19. 2024-08-01
    listed $229,990 Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    The one-story Taft offers easy living for families and couples alike, featuring an exclusive owner's suite with spa-like bath, and a pair of secondary bedrooms for family members of guests. A separate dining room and gourmet kitchen provide the perfect backdrop for entertaining family or friends, and the family room offers a casual retreat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,566
• − Property taxes: −$3,633
• − Insurance: −$1,211
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$7,045
• Taxable loss: −$6,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,441
• After-tax cash flow: $-349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This one-story home is in good condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $206,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $203,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $201,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $231,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $230,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Listed $229,990 Zillow