9745 State Park Rd · Penfield, PA 15849

$148,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,254 sqft · Other · 7 Days on market

Built 1953 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on 1.5 acres and just minutes from the outdoor paradise of S. B. Elliott State Park and Parker Dam State Park, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath ranch is exactly what you've been waiting for! Whether you're searching for a full-time home, hunting camp, Airbnb opportunity, or the perfect weekend getaway, this property is packed with potential and surrounded by some of Central Pennsylvania’s best recreation. Spend your days hiking scenic trails, fishing trout streams, kayaking, wildlife watching, ATV riding nearby, or soaking in the peaceful beauty of the Pennsylvania Wilds. Inside, the warm knotty pine living room welcomes you with rustic charm and a woodburning fireplace just waiting to

Key facts

• Outdoor paradise
• Hiking scenic trails
• 1.5 acres

Tags

• 1.5 ACRES
• OUTDOOR PARADISE
• S B ELLIOTT STATE PARK
• PARKER DAM STATE PARK
• HIKING SCENIC TRAILS
• FISHING TROUT STREAMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electric hot water; Oil heating; Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached property; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stick-built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Well water; On-site septic; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms (both on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil-fired heating
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located in the basement; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dubois Area SD (town): math 38% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #262 of 539 in PA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Clearfield County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Clearfield County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,413 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $15,194
• Equity at exit: $69,694

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $58,281
• Equity at exit: $109,920

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15849

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,463/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $132,549

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-46	+0% $-87	+5% $-129	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-131	+0% $-87	+5% $-44	+10% $0
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-50	base $-87	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $148,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-05-23
   listed $148,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$36/mo · 29.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$1,463
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,060
• − Management: −$1,060
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable loss: −$3,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$881
• After-tax cash flow: $-169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dubois Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4207830
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,951
• Composite: 39.15/100
• National rank: #4031
• State rank: #262 of 539 in PA

Livability — Penfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Penfield, PA
• Population (ZIP): 1,285

Population outlook (Clearfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,658 people
• By 2030: 78,358 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 74,670 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 70,186 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 60,391 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 46,886 · -41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clearfield

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.5) · D 23.9% · R 75.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.1pp · 2024: -51.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.5 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Current HPI: 100.7014
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $148,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,463 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.