21 Victory Ave · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$239,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1910 3,799 sqft lot $132/sqft · 19% below area Est $297k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Three storied multi family house with 5 beds and 3 full bathrooms, makes it a giant living for a large family or for investment purposes. Lower unit has a large and huge living and dining along with a big kitchen, 1 bedroom and a full bathroom. Second floor has 3 bedrooms with a full bathroom. Third floor has 2 beds , one full bath, one eat in kitchen too. Its a very vibrant and core location near Basilica of Lackawanna, where all amenities are nearby. Expressway takes you to the center of the Buffalo city within 10 mins in all direction. The structure of the house is very strong, hardly any repair work to be done. Roof is little old but not too old to be repaired. Full Basement in excellent condition. You may occupy without any renovation work. Large backyard makes peaceful afternoon tea place for the family or establish kitchen garden if you wish. There is a driveway and a nice porch. Hope you come and see before its gone.

Key facts

• Driveway
• Large backyard
• Big kitchen

Tags

• MULTI FAMILY HOUSE
• LARGE LIVING AND DINING
• BIG KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $225,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.44%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,152
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -19.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Fig Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (+8%)	2mo	$115,000	$59	66
188 Franklin St	0.37mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+11%)	18mo	$240,000	$119	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $98,167
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $261,906
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,953/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$976
• Net cashflow: $2,152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,288	-5% $2,220	+0% $2,152	+5% $2,084	+10% $2,016
Rent	-10% $1,785	-5% $1,968	+0% $2,152	+5% $2,336	+10% $2,519
Rate	-1.0pp $2,273	-0.5pp $2,213	base $2,152	+0.5pp $2,090	+1.0pp $2,026

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	5	3	$1,343
1× unit	3	1	$1,855
1× unit	2	1	$1,451
Total (3 units)			$4,649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $239,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $249,900 Active 938-char remark

    Show marketing remark (938 chars)

    Three storied multi family house with 5 beds and 3 full bathrooms, makes it a giant living for a large family or for investment purposes. Lower unit has a large and huge living and dining along with a big kitchen, 1 bedroom and a full bathroom. Second floor has 3 bedrooms with a full bathroom. Third floor has 2 beds , one full bath, one eat in kitchen too. Its a very vibrant and core location near Basilica of Lackawanna, where all amenities are nearby. Expressway takes you to the center of the Buffalo city within 10 mins in all direction. The structure of the house is very strong, hardly any repair work to be done. Roof is little old but not too old to be repaired. Full Basement in excellent condition. You may occupy without any renovation work. Large backyard makes peaceful afternoon tea place for the family or establish kitchen garden if you wish. There is a driveway and a nice porch. Hope you come and see before its gone.

17. 2026-01-29
    historical
18. 2025-10-29
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,953 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,004 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,050/yr (+$88/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,953
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,463
• − Management: −$4,463
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $23,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,590
• After-tax cash flow: $20,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $249,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $249,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,953 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.