14753 SW 39th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1979 0.28 ac lot Est $246k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to this solid 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home located on a spacious 0.28-acre corner lot in the desirable Marion Oaks community. Offering 1,421 square feet of living space, this 1979-built home is perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking to add their personal touch and build equity. This single-story home features a functional layout with three good-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms. While it needs cosmetic updates, it provides a strong foundation and excellent potential in a well-established neighborhood. Spacious 0.28-acre corner lot (over 12,000 sq ft) with excellent frontage and plenty of room for outdoor ac

Key facts

• Strong foundation
• Convenient access
• Spacious corner lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• STRONG FOUNDATION
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead claimed; Directions: CR 484 west, turn on Marion Oaks BLVD, turn on Marion Oaks Ln, turn on SW 39th Circle — home on corner
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; Faces southwest; Residential zoning (R1)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,421 living area (1,774 building area)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 96 x 125; Lot about 0.28 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $189k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,093 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,833
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3573 SW 147th Lane Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-6%)	7mo	$179,900	$135	66
4095 SW 144th St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+4%)	12mo	$206,000	$139	62
14870 SW 43rd Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+3%)	15mo	$303,500	$208	61
173 Marion Oaks Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,289 (-9%)	15mo	$159,000	$123	61
4365 SW 151st St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-8%)	12mo	$269,900	$205	61
14556 SW 45th Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-3%)	14mo	$238,900	$173	60
14530 SW 35th Terrace Rd	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-7%)	18mo	$199,000	$150	60
14545 SW 34th Terrace Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-10%)	11mo	$178,000	$139	56
14742 SW 43rd Terrace Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+6%)	15mo	$272,500	$180	56
15011 SW 37th Ter	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-13%)	18mo	$210,000	$169	45
15068 SW 43rd Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-12%)	16mo	$250,000	$201	42
15298 SW 43rd Avenue Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-8%)	15mo	$256,400	$195	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,824
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,042
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $323	+0% $270	+5% $216	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $198	+0% $270	+5% $341	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $318	base $270	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14856 SW 35th Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,450	$1.40	15d	1	0.26mi
14430 SW 34th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,350	$1.32	15d	1	0.37mi
3567 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,450	$1.29	22d	1	0.40mi
3500 SW 150th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1789	$1,750	$0.98	15d	1	0.43mi
14525 SW 42nd Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	15d	1	0.50mi
3313 SW 147th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$1,400	$1.25	22d	1	0.51mi
4309 SW 143rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,799	$1.45	15d	1	0.62mi
4484 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	22d	1	0.65mi
4572 SW 149th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,950	$1.11	22d	1	0.66mi
14614 SW 46th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	22d	1	0.76mi
15415 SW 34th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	22d	1	0.77mi
14919 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,000	$1.07	15d	1	0.77mi
422 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,900	$1.20	15d	1	0.78mi
15712 SW 37th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,850	$1.02	22d	1	0.79mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	0.80mi
14193 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,599	$1.10	15d	1	0.82mi
14843 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,725	$1.10	22d	1	0.85mi
14965 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	15d	1	0.88mi
15568 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,200	$1.20	15d	1	0.88mi
15018 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,625	$1.15	15d	1	0.91mi
4004 SW 138th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,695	$1.26	22d	1	0.94mi
15729 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,400	$1.42	15d	1	0.96mi
15739 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,400	$1.42	15d	1	0.97mi
15209 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,650	$0.98	22d	1	0.98mi
4967 SW 150th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	22d	1	1.03mi
251 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,795	$1.31	22d	1	1.05mi
14007 SW 30th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,675	$0.98	22d	1	1.05mi
15885 SW 35th Court Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,550	$1.29	22d	1	1.08mi
2730 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,725	$1.26	22d	1	1.08mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	15d	1	1.09mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	15d	1	1.09mi
15755 SW 33rd Avenue Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	22d	1	1.10mi
3011 SW 140th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	22d	1	1.11mi
13731 SW 40th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	15d	1	1.12mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	22d	1	1.15mi
13805 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,800	$1.20	22d	1	1.15mi
14245 SW 28th Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	15d	1	1.15mi
2598 SW 147th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	15d	1	1.16mi
2632 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,675	$1.13	15d	1	1.16mi
2663 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,600	$1.32	15d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $189,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $189,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $209,000 Active
18. 2009-02-02
    historical
19. 2008-02-04
    listed $118,590
20. 2000-05-18
    soldstatus $45,000
21. 1992-04-01
    soldstatus $49,000
22. 1979-10-01
    soldstatus $47,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$475/yr (+$40/mo · 43.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$31
• After-tax cash flow: $3,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+296.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-04 Listed $118,590 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1979-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,094 · +24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.