1301 Adell St · Bay City, TX 77414

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1960 0.34 ac lot $74/sqft · 25% below area ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.76%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,040
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -56.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1012 Avenue G	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,736 (-14%)	23mo	$50,000	$29	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-17,584
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,056
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,932/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,490

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3112 15th St Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1983	$1,800	$0.91	43d	1	1.35mi
2824 4th St Bay City, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	43d	1	1.40mi
1417 Highland Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,600	$0.96	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $150,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-05-19
   price $150,000
10. 2026-03-16
    listed $200,000 Active
11. 2023-10-16
    historical
12. 2023-09-13
    price $200,000
13. 2023-09-09
    status Active
14. 2023-09-02
    status Active
15. 2023-09-02
    historical
16. 2023-08-21
    status Option Pending
17. 2023-08-19
    price $230,000
18. 2023-08-19
    status Active
19. 2023-08-19
    status Option Pending
20. 2023-08-19
    status Active
21. 2023-08-17
    status Option Pending
22. 2023-07-14
    price $280,000
23. 2023-05-29
    listed $290,000 Active
24. 2023-05-08
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,932 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,932 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,932
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$288
• After-tax cash flow: $1,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-48.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-13 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-09-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-09-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-19 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-08-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-08-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-14 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-29 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-08 Coming Soon — HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,932 · +17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.