38515 Dickerson Ln · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$190,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1981 0.94 ac lot Est $192k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully Renovated on Nearly an Acre in Ponchatoula! Tucked away on a quiet, private 0.94-acre lot, this beautifully renovated 3 bed, 2 full bath + 1 half bath home is the perfect blend of charm and modern updates. The home has been completely refreshed with a bright, updated interior and a stylish kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. Step out back to enjoy the patio overlooking your expansive yard, plenty of room to play, host, or even add a pool. A convenient storage room offers extra space for tools, hobbies, or outdoor gear. With a brand new roof, thoughtful renovations throughout, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this one checks all the boxes.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Private lot
• Expansive yard

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• PRIVATE LOT
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• CONVENIENT STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Window cooling units; Ductless heating and multiple heating units including wall furnace
• Home design: Single-story; Raised foundation; Wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Property listed in excellent condition
• Construction: Built with wood siding; Raised foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Concrete covered patio/porch; Outside city limits; Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 272 x 150

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($981/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.2% in Ponchatoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tucker Memorial Elementary School (709 students, 67% FRL); Ponchatoula Junior High School (math 18% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 770 students, 60% FRL); Ponchatoula High School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #106 of 265 statewide, top 43%, 2,262 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 527 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $190k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,293 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,540
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39068 Old Sawmill Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+12%)	16mo	$214,000	$157	51
19176 Weinberger Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-10%)	8mo	$97,000	$88	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-29,181
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,812
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 527
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $136	+0% $82	+5% $28	+10% $-26
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $22	+0% $82	+5% $142	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $130	base $82	+0.5pp $32	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39189 Old Sawmill Rd Unit A Ponchatoula, LA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,200	$1.21	45d	1	0.57mi
20276 Weinberger Rd Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,200	$0.93	45d	1	0.60mi
39329 Brookfield Dr Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1385	$2,000	$1.44	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $190,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM

   Show marketing remark (676 chars)

   Fully Renovated on Nearly an Acre in Ponchatoula! Tucked away on a quiet, private 0.94-acre lot, this beautifully renovated 3 bed, 2 full bath + 1 half bath home is the perfect blend of charm and modern updates. The home has been completely refreshed with a bright, updated interior and a stylish kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. Step out back to enjoy the patio overlooking your expansive yard, plenty of room to play, host, or even add a pool. A convenient storage room offers extra space for tools, hobbies, or outdoor gear. With a brand new roof, thoughtful renovations throughout, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this one checks all the boxes.

9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    price $195,000 Active 9 DOM

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Fully Renovated on Nearly an Acre in Ponchatoula! Tucked away on a quiet, private 0.94-acre lot, this beautifully renovated 3 bed, 2 full bath + 1 half bath home is the perfect blend of charm and modern updates. The home has been completely refreshed with a bright, updated interior and a stylish kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. Step out back to enjoy the patio overlooking your expansive yard, plenty of room to play, host, or even add a pool. A convenient storage room offers extra space for tools, hobbies, or outdoor gear. With a brand new roof, thoughtful renovations throughout, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this one checks all the boxes.

19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Fully Renovated on Nearly an Acre in Ponchatoula! Tucked away on a quiet, private 0.94-acre lot, this beautifully renovated 3 bed, 2 full bath + 1 half bath home is the perfect blend of charm and modern updates. The home has been completely refreshed with a bright, updated interior and a stylish kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. Step out back to enjoy the patio overlooking your expansive yard, plenty of room to play, host, or even add a pool. A convenient storage room offers extra space for tools, hobbies, or outdoor gear. With a brand new roof, thoughtful renovations throughout, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this one checks all the boxes.

20. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
21. 2026-05-22
    listed $200,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Fully Renovated on Nearly an Acre in Ponchatoula! Tucked away on a quiet, private 0.94-acre lot, this beautifully renovated 3 bed, 2 full bath + 1 half bath home is the perfect blend of charm and modern updates. The home has been completely refreshed with a bright, updated interior and a stylish kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. Step out back to enjoy the patio overlooking your expansive yard, plenty of room to play, host, or even add a pool. A convenient storage room offers extra space for tools, hobbies, or outdoor gear. With a brand new roof, thoughtful renovations throughout, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this one checks all the boxes.

22. 2026-05-22
    listed $200,000 Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Fully Renovated on Nearly an Acre in Ponchatoula! Tucked away on a quiet, private 0.94-acre lot, this beautifully renovated 3 bed, 2 full bath + 1 half bath home is the perfect blend of charm and modern updates. The home has been completely refreshed with a bright, updated interior and a stylish kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. Step out back to enjoy the patio overlooking your expansive yard, plenty of room to play, host, or even add a pool. A convenient storage room offers extra space for tools, hobbies, or outdoor gear. With a brand new roof, thoughtful renovations throughout, and a peaceful setting just minutes from town, this one checks all the boxes.

23. 2025-01-06
    soldstatus $48,000 Closed 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Attention investors! This is a great opportunity to renovate to fix & flip, or it would make a great rental or first time buyer home after improvements. Located in flood zone X and on almost 1 acre of land, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, including a large back porch and outdoor storage, needs repairs, yet has lots of potential. Only Cash or Conventional loans will work on this home. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Seller will not make any repairs.

24. 2025-01-06
    soldstatus $48,000

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Attention investors! This is a great opportunity to renovate to fix & flip, or it would make a great rental or first time buyer home after improvements. Located in flood zone X and on almost 1 acre of land, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, including a large back porch and outdoor storage, needs repairs, yet has lots of potential. Only Cash or Conventional loans will work on this home. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Seller will not make any repairs.

25. 2024-12-23
    historical Active Under Contract 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Attention investors! This is a great opportunity to renovate to fix & flip, or it would make a great rental or first time buyer home after improvements. Located in flood zone X and on almost 1 acre of land, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, including a large back porch and outdoor storage, needs repairs, yet has lots of potential. Only Cash or Conventional loans will work on this home. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Seller will not make any repairs.

26. 2024-12-09
    listed $59,900 Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Attention investors! This is a great opportunity to renovate to fix & flip, or it would make a great rental or first time buyer home after improvements. Located in flood zone X and on almost 1 acre of land, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, including a large back porch and outdoor storage, needs repairs, yet has lots of potential. Only Cash or Conventional loans will work on this home. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Seller will not make any repairs.

27. 2024-12-09
    listed $59,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Attention investors! This is a great opportunity to renovate to fix & flip, or it would make a great rental or first time buyer home after improvements. Located in flood zone X and on almost 1 acre of land, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, including a large back porch and outdoor storage, needs repairs, yet has lots of potential. Only Cash or Conventional loans will work on this home. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Seller will not make any repairs.

28. 2005-10-31
    soldstatus $65,000
29. 2005-02-22
    soldstatus $47,900
30. 2004-10-26
    listed $47,500
31. 2004-10-26
    listed $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$495/yr (+$41/mo · 90.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,462
• − Management: −$1,462
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$557
• After-tax cash flow: $1,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $190,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $190,000 GSREIN
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $195,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $195,000 GSREIN
• 2026-05-22 Listed $200,000 GSREIN
• 2026-05-22 Listed $200,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-06 Sold (MLS) $48,000 GSREIN
• 2024-12-23 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2024-12-09 Listed $59,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-12-09 Listed $59,900 GSREIN
• 2005-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-22 Sold (MLS) $47,900 GSREIN
• 2004-10-26 Listed $47,500 GSREIN
• 2004-10-26 Listed $47,500 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $550 · -24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.