1036 Paradise Cove Rd · Sherwood Shores, TX 75076

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 696 sqft · Manufactured public records · 311 Days on market

Built 1966 7,492 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained and updated home with 3 bedrooms, spacious living and dining room! It is perfect for weekend retreat or full-time home. Two houses away from the beautiful sandy beach at Lake Texoma. Fenced yard with gate. Take action and start your life at the lake! Home is clean and move-in ready!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Screened porch
• 7,492 sq ft lot

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.8% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pottsboro ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #288 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,022 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.74%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-20,672
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,299
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75076

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,343

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 311 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 310 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 309 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 308 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 303 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 301 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $169,900 Active 300 DOM
10. 2026-05-20
    price $169,900 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Well maintained and updated home with 3 bedrooms, spacious living and dining room! It is perfect for weekend retreat or full-time home. Two houses away from the beautiful sandy beach at Lake Texoma. Fenced yard with gate. Take action and start your life at the lake! Home is clean and move-in ready!

11. 2026-04-20
    status Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Well maintained and updated home with 3 bedrooms, spacious living and dining room! It is perfect for weekend retreat or full-time home. Two houses away from the beautiful sandy beach at Lake Texoma. Fenced yard with gate. Take action and start your life at the lake! Home is clean and move-in ready!

12. 2026-01-17
    price $185,000 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Well maintained and updated home with 3 bedrooms, spacious living and dining room! It is perfect for weekend retreat or full-time home. Two houses away from the beautiful sandy beach at Lake Texoma. Fenced yard with gate. Take action and start your life at the lake! Home is clean and move-in ready!

13. 2025-07-07
    listed $199,000 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Well maintained and updated home with 3 bedrooms, spacious living and dining room! It is perfect for weekend retreat or full-time home. Two houses away from the beautiful sandy beach at Lake Texoma. Fenced yard with gate. Take action and start your life at the lake! Home is clean and move-in ready!

14. 2016-10-05
    soldstatus Sold 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Exterior Freshly Painted Lake Home or Permanent Home just two doors from Lake Texoma! Located in Paradise Acres on fenced lot, covered parking for Car, Boat, RV or Lake Toys. Spacious Living & Dining with lots of natural light. Kitchen has microwave, metal storage rack, island and breakfast bar. Split bedrooms. Enjoy totally screened Patio. Will consider a short term Lease.

15. 2016-09-24
    historical Active Option Contract 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Exterior Freshly Painted Lake Home or Permanent Home just two doors from Lake Texoma! Located in Paradise Acres on fenced lot, covered parking for Car, Boat, RV or Lake Toys. Spacious Living & Dining with lots of natural light. Kitchen has microwave, metal storage rack, island and breakfast bar. Split bedrooms. Enjoy totally screened Patio. Will consider a short term Lease.

16. 2016-07-10
    price $65,500 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Exterior Freshly Painted Lake Home or Permanent Home just two doors from Lake Texoma! Located in Paradise Acres on fenced lot, covered parking for Car, Boat, RV or Lake Toys. Spacious Living & Dining with lots of natural light. Kitchen has microwave, metal storage rack, island and breakfast bar. Split bedrooms. Enjoy totally screened Patio. Will consider a short term Lease.

17. 2016-05-08
    listed $69,900 Active 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Exterior Freshly Painted Lake Home or Permanent Home just two doors from Lake Texoma! Located in Paradise Acres on fenced lot, covered parking for Car, Boat, RV or Lake Toys. Spacious Living & Dining with lots of natural light. Kitchen has microwave, metal storage rack, island and breakfast bar. Split bedrooms. Enjoy totally screened Patio. Will consider a short term Lease.

18. 2016-02-08
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2016-02-01
    status Pending
20. 2016-01-25
    historical Active Option Contract
21. 2016-01-08
    status Active
22. 2016-01-07
    historical Active Option Contract
23. 2015-10-28
    price $49,900
24. 2015-10-09
    price $56,900
25. 2015-09-11
    listed $59,900 Active
26. 2004-08-25
    soldstatus
27. 2004-05-07
    soldstatus
28. 2004-04-26
    historical
29. 2003-09-22
    listed $45,000
30. 1999-07-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,919/yr (+$160/mo · 161.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$1,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$379
• After-tax cash flow: $1,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pottsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835580
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $50,811
• Composite: 37.44/100
• National rank: #4414
• State rank: #288 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,989
• Household income: $76,919
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Scottish 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.29%
• Current HPI: 244.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+277.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2016-10-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-09-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-07-10 Price Changed $65,500 NTREIS
• 2016-05-08 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2016-02-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-02-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-01-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-01-08 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2016-01-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-10-28 Price Changed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2015-10-09 Price Changed $56,900 NTREIS
• 2015-09-11 Listed $59,900 NTREIS
• 2004-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-07 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2004-04-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2003-09-22 Listed $45,000 NTREIS
• 1999-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.