12408 Trappers Trl Unit F30-01 · Truckee, CA 96161

$18,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,985 sqft · SingleFamily · 363 Days on market

$6/sqft · 16% below area Est $21k · 16% under $869/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Luxury Mountain Retreat in Old Greenwood. Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwood, this 4-bedroom, 4.5-bath home offers the ultimate in modern comfort and year-round adventure. This 1/17th Shared Ownership opportunity is ideal for those looking to enjoy the Tahoe lifestyle without the responsibilities of full-time ownership. The home features the most sought-after floor plan in the community, including two primary suites on the main level, a spacious upstairs loft with a pool table, a large bunk room, an additional upstairs suite, and a bright, open-concept layout perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home also includes a private hot tub, 2-car garage, and a serene setting that backs to open space and expansive golf course for added peace and privacy. Ownership includes winter Week 1 (Early January), plus reserved Flex Week (Sept. 26- Oct. 3, 2025) and Mid-Week (December 22-26, 2025) stays—giving you multiple options to enjoy the mountains during prime time. You’ll also benefit from unlimited spontaneous use based on availability at no additional cost. Enjoy full access to Tahoe Mountain Club amenities: two championship golf courses, an expansive Pavilion with pools, spa, fitness center, tennis courts, family-friendly activities, and exclusive lounges in the Village and on-mountain at Northstar. Private dining, social events, and a complimentary ski shuttle add even more value to your time in Tahoe. In the summer, enjoy pool days, hikes, and bike rides right from your front door. In the winter, hit the slopes or cozy up by the fire after a day of snow play. With Downtown Truckee and world-class ski resorts just minutes away, this is your basecamp for luxury and convenience. Own your slice of Tahoe—without the hassle. Let every visit feel like a vacation, year after year.

Key facts

• Backs to open space
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Two primary suites

Tags

• LUXURY MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• SPACIOUS UPSTAIRS LOFT
• PRIVATE HOT TUB
• BACKS TO OPEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($63k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 355.9% vs local median 2.1% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glenshire Elementary (math 62% / reading 70%, grade B+, #176 of 1,571 statewide, top 11%, 500 students, 12% FRL); Alder Creek Middle (math 41% / reading 54%, grade C-, #113 of 498 statewide, top 23%, 538 students, 26% FRL); Tahoe Truckee High (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 890 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,895/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $540 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $15,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 43.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 355.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 1248.50%
• DSCR: 56.55
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $21,386
• List price: $18,000
• Delta: -15.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12278 Frontier Trl Unit F24-07	0.14mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	3mo	$21,000	$7	91
12508 Trappers Trl Unit F35-36	0.10mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	10mo	$13,000	$4	87
12508 Trappers Trl Unit F35-26	0.10mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	10mo	$33,000	$11	87
12339 Lookout Loop Unit F11-13	0.12mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	4mo	$15,000	$5	86
12540 Gold Rush Trl Unit F40-01	0.20mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	6mo	$12,000	$4	86
12258 Lookout Loop Unit F23-07	0.16mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	8mo	$25,000	$8	86
12622 Lookout Loop Unit F44-11	0.24mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	4mo	$16,000	$5	86
12403 Lookout Loop Unit F14-01	0.11mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	8mo	$10,000	$3	83
12339 Lookout Loop Unit F11-36	0.12mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	9mo	$18,000	$6	82
12458 Lookout Loop Unit F36-32	0.12mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,740 (-8%)	9mo	$17,500	$6	64
12382 Caleb Dr	0.30mi	4/3.5	3,405 (+14%)	9mo	$2,750,000	$808	51
11583 Henness Rd	0.74mi	4/4.5	3,121 (+5%)	10mo	$2,900,000	$929	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 72.68×
• Total profit: $361,255
• Equity at exit: $2,684

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 175.17×
• Total profit: $877,813
• Equity at exit: $1,556

Cash invested: $5,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$22 /mo · $270/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$869
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,658
• Net cashflow: $5,244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $18,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,256	-5% $5,250	+0% $5,244	+5% $5,237	+10% $5,231
Rent	-10% $4,620	-5% $4,932	+0% $5,244	+5% $5,556	+10% $5,867
Rate	-1.0pp $5,253	-0.5pp $5,248	base $5,244	+0.5pp $5,239	+1.0pp $5,234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,500
• Closing costs: $540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	45d	1	1.00mi
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	45d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $869 · $10,428/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-06-25
   price $18,000 1854-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1854 chars)

   Luxury Mountain Retreat in Old Greenwood. Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwood, this 4-bedroom, 4.5-bath home offers the ultimate in modern comfort and year-round adventure. This 1/17th Shared Ownership opportunity is ideal for those looking to enjoy the Tahoe lifestyle without the responsibilities of full-time ownership. The home features the most sought-after floor plan in the community, including two primary suites on the main level, a spacious upstairs loft with a pool table, a large bunk room, an additional upstairs suite, and a bright, open-concept layout perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home also includes a private hot tub, 2-car garage, and a serene setting that backs to open space and expansive golf course for added peace and privacy. Ownership includes winter Week 1 (Early January), plus reserved Flex Week (Sept. 26- Oct. 3, 2025) and Mid-Week (December 22-26, 2025) stays—giving you multiple options to enjoy the mountains during prime time. You’ll also benefit from unlimited spontaneous use based on availability at no additional cost. Enjoy full access to Tahoe Mountain Club amenities: two championship golf courses, an expansive Pavilion with pools, spa, fitness center, tennis courts, family-friendly activities, and exclusive lounges in the Village and on-mountain at Northstar. Private dining, social events, and a complimentary ski shuttle add even more value to your time in Tahoe. In the summer, enjoy pool days, hikes, and bike rides right from your front door. In the winter, hit the slopes or cozy up by the fire after a day of snow play. With Downtown Truckee and world-class ski resorts just minutes away, this is your basecamp for luxury and convenience. Own your slice of Tahoe—without the hassle. Let every visit feel like a vacation, year after year.

2. 2025-05-26
   listed $22,000 Active 1854-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1854 chars)

   Luxury Mountain Retreat in Old Greenwood. Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in the heart of Old Greenwood, this 4-bedroom, 4.5-bath home offers the ultimate in modern comfort and year-round adventure. This 1/17th Shared Ownership opportunity is ideal for those looking to enjoy the Tahoe lifestyle without the responsibilities of full-time ownership. The home features the most sought-after floor plan in the community, including two primary suites on the main level, a spacious upstairs loft with a pool table, a large bunk room, an additional upstairs suite, and a bright, open-concept layout perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home also includes a private hot tub, 2-car garage, and a serene setting that backs to open space and expansive golf course for added peace and privacy. Ownership includes winter Week 1 (Early January), plus reserved Flex Week (Sept. 26- Oct. 3, 2025) and Mid-Week (December 22-26, 2025) stays—giving you multiple options to enjoy the mountains during prime time. You’ll also benefit from unlimited spontaneous use based on availability at no additional cost. Enjoy full access to Tahoe Mountain Club amenities: two championship golf courses, an expansive Pavilion with pools, spa, fitness center, tennis courts, family-friendly activities, and exclusive lounges in the Village and on-mountain at Northstar. Private dining, social events, and a complimentary ski shuttle add even more value to your time in Tahoe. In the summer, enjoy pool days, hikes, and bike rides right from your front door. In the winter, hit the slopes or cozy up by the fire after a day of snow play. With Downtown Truckee and world-class ski resorts just minutes away, this is your basecamp for luxury and convenience. Own your slice of Tahoe—without the hassle. Let every visit feel like a vacation, year after year.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $94,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,008
• − Property taxes: −$270
• − Insurance: −$90
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,579
• − Management: −$7,579
• − HOA: −$10,428
• − Depreciation: −$524
• Taxable income: $67,262
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,143
• After-tax cash flow: $46,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $18,000 TSMLS
• 2025-05-26 Listed $22,000 TSMLS