2727 E Highway 44 · Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$192,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1964 0.46 ac lot Est $286k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 1 Bath house in the city limits of Shepherdsville, no subdivision, large lot. This convenient, affordable home has some updates including fresh paint & new kitchen and utility room flooring. 2 car det garage. Approx. 1 mile east of I-65 exit 117.

Key facts

• Newer cabinets
• Newer flooring
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• NEWER FLOORING
• NEWER CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas service
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story; Built in 1964
• Construction: Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation with concrete block; Approximately 1,230 above-grade living area
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; Irregular lot with dimensions approximately 120 x 206

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (first floor)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Five closets; Living room on the first floor; Eat-in kitchen on the first floor; First-floor utility/other room; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry; Utility room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $192k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $192k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,120 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.27%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,824
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Driftwood Dr	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,118 (-9%)	9mo	$232,000	$208	48
229 Douglas Ln	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-15%)	2mo	$244,000	$232	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,573
• Equity at exit: $28,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $23,563
• Equity at exit: $16,601

Cash invested: $53,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40165

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,225/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,505

Max offer price $192,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,000
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
243 Boardwalk Ave Shepherdsville, KY	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1350	$1,545	$1.14	15d	17	0.27mi
163 Grandview Dr Shepherdsville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	23d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $192,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $192,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $192,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $192,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $192,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $192,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $192,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $192,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $192,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $192,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $192,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $192,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $192,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $192,000 Active
15. 2014-04-11
    historical 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath house in the city limits of Shepherdsville, no subdivision, large lot. This convenient, affordable home has some updates including fresh paint & new kitchen and utility room flooring. 2 car det garage. Approx. 1 mile east of I-65 exit 117.

16. 2014-04-10
    soldstatus $93,000 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath house in the city limits of Shepherdsville, no subdivision, large lot. This convenient, affordable home has some updates including fresh paint & new kitchen and utility room flooring. 2 car det garage. Approx. 1 mile east of I-65 exit 117.

17. 2014-04-10
    soldstatus $93,000

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath house in the city limits of Shepherdsville, no subdivision, large lot. This convenient, affordable home has some updates including fresh paint & new kitchen and utility room flooring. 2 car det garage. Approx. 1 mile east of I-65 exit 117.

18. 2014-02-21
    listed $99,900 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 Bath house in the city limits of Shepherdsville, no subdivision, large lot. This convenient, affordable home has some updates including fresh paint & new kitchen and utility room flooring. 2 car det garage. Approx. 1 mile east of I-65 exit 117.

19. 2014-01-17
    historical
20. 2013-11-20
    listed $104,900
21. 2013-11-17
    historical
22. 2013-07-19
    listed $109,900
23. 2013-07-13
    historical
24. 2013-03-07
    listed $119,000
25. 2013-02-10
    historical
26. 2012-07-10
    listed $126,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,651 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$35/mo · 34.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,755
• − Property taxes: −$1,225
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,895
• − Management: −$1,895
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable income: $1,372
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$329
• After-tax cash flow: $4,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shepherdsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #5674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bullitt County · 62,065 people
• City population: 38,403
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,403
• Household income: $79,540
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.91%
• Current HPI: 247.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+52.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $192,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2014-04-11 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2014-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-10 Sold (MLS) $93,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2014-02-21 Listed $99,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2014-01-17 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2013-11-20 Listed $104,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-11-17 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2013-07-19 Listed $109,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-07-13 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2013-03-07 Listed $119,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-02-10 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2012-07-10 Listed $126,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,225 · -32.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.