711 Old Canyon Rd #69 · Fremont, CA 94536

$188,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,369 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 1969 $137/sqft · at area comps Est $193k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home located in the peaceful Niles Canyon Mobile Estates senior community. This inviting home offers generous living spaces, including a formal dining room with a built-in display cabinet and a bright kitchen featuring modern appliances that are included with the sale. The separate laundry room provides abundant storage and comes complete with a washer and dryer. Additional features include dual-pane windows, central heating and air conditioning, and a comfortable family room with a built-in desk—perfect for a home office or hobby space. Enjoy relaxing on the large covered side porch while taking in beautiful hillside views. Outside, you'll also find a long covered carport and two storage sheds, providing plenty of room for parking and extra storage. The monthly space rent is $1,366. This includes water, sewer and basic cable tv. The park has many amenities for your enjoyment such as Clubhouse, sauna, tv area, car wash, spa, a pool that's heater all year round plus activities and more!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Formal dining room
• Modern appliances

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BUILT-IN DISPLAY CABINET
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• ABUNDANT STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,720 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.70%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,509
• List price: $188,000
• Delta: -2.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
711 Old Canyon Rd #81	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-0%)	1mo	$120,000	$88	96
711 Old Canyon Rd #33	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	3mo	$193,000	$144	94
711 Old Canyon Rd #47	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	6mo	$195,000	$145	92
711 Old Canyon Rd #103	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (-4%)	2mo	$300,000	$229	86
711 Old Canyon Rd #97	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,340 (-2%)	9mo	$138,500	$103	86
711 Old Canyon Rd #169	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	8mo	$210,000	$146	85
711 Old Canyon Rd #74	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	15mo	$300,000	$223	85
711 Old Canyon Rd #26	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	13mo	$199,000	$138	80
711 Old Canyon Rd #43	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+1%)	16mo	$275,000	$199	80
711 Old Canyon Rd #147	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	12mo	$99,000	$79	72
711 Old Canyon Rd #6	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,272 (-7%)	22mo	$184,000	$145	70
711 Old Canyon Rd #8	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-9%)	21mo	$220,000	$176	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $63,850
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $185,597
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94536

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,460 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$235 /mo · $2,820/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $1,434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,645

Max offer price $188,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,564	-5% $1,499	+0% $1,434	+5% $1,369	+10% $1,304
Rent	-10% $1,161	-5% $1,298	+0% $1,434	+5% $1,571	+10% $1,708
Rate	-1.0pp $1,529	-0.5pp $1,482	base $1,434	+0.5pp $1,386	+1.0pp $1,336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38352 Timpanogas Cir Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,350	$2.68	11d	1	0.19mi
38451 Goodrich Way Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$3,600	$3.08	44d	1	0.26mi
37847 Niles Blvd Apt 10 Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	44d	1	0.48mi
38776 Crane Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1534	$3,750	$2.44	3d	1	0.63mi
38738 Aurora Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1123	$3,296	$2.93	11d	1	0.65mi
37565 2nd St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1704	$4,095	$2.40	6d	1	0.75mi
37565 2nd St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1704	$4,095	$2.40	19d	1	0.75mi
38593 Royal Ann Cmn Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$3,609	$3.06	25d	1	0.75mi
38605 Royal Ann Cmn Unit 38605 Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$3,250	$2.75	44d	1	0.77mi
562 Lambert Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1540	$3,940	$2.56	13d	1	0.91mi
38862 Cherry Glen Cmn Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	1168	$3,400	$2.91	21d	1	1.08mi
38862 Cherry Glen Cmn Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	1168	$3,400	$2.91	19d	1	1.08mi
1043 Bonner Ave Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1532	$4,500	$2.94	44d	1	1.13mi
1031 Walnut Ave Fremont, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$4,592	$4.24	0d	41	1.22mi
38680 Waterside Cir Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	990	$3,442	$3.48	2d	5	1.30mi
1001 Beethoven Cmn Fremont, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1059	$3,150	$2.97	0d	10	1.36mi
282 Lindero Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1440	$3,950	$2.74	4d	1	1.36mi
39451 Gallaudet Dr Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$3,479	$3.84	0d	14	1.45mi
2000 Walnut Ave Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$4,071	$4.42	0d	13	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $188,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $188,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $188,000 Active 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    Discover this spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home located in the peaceful Niles Canyon Mobile Estates senior community. This inviting home offers generous living spaces, including a formal dining room with a built-in display cabinet and a bright kitchen featuring modern appliances that are included with the sale. The separate laundry room provides abundant storage and comes complete with a washer and dryer. Additional features include dual-pane windows, central heating and air conditioning, and a comfortable family room with a built-in desk—perfect for a home office or hobby space. Enjoy relaxing on the large covered side porch while taking in beautiful hillside views. Outside, you'll also find a long covered carport and two storage sheds, providing plenty of room for parking and extra storage. The monthly space rent is $1,366. This includes water, sewer and basic cable tv. The park has many amenities for your enjoyment such as Clubhouse, sauna, tv area, car wash, spa, a pool that's heater all year round plus activities and more!

17. 2020-04-23
    soldstatus $168,000 Sold 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This home is located in the beautiful Age Restricted senior community of Niles Canyon. At 1368 sq ft , this home has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The home has been upgraded with double paned windows, laminate floors, newer carpet, and swamp cooler. Also the owners replaced the water heater in 2015. The kitchen features built-in microwave, dish washer, built-in oven, gas stove, and refrigerator. Another feature of the home is the amazing views of the hills and side yard perfect for gardening.

18. 2020-03-10
    historical Contingent 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This home is located in the beautiful Age Restricted senior community of Niles Canyon. At 1368 sq ft , this home has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The home has been upgraded with double paned windows, laminate floors, newer carpet, and swamp cooler. Also the owners replaced the water heater in 2015. The kitchen features built-in microwave, dish washer, built-in oven, gas stove, and refrigerator. Another feature of the home is the amazing views of the hills and side yard perfect for gardening.

19. 2020-02-27
    listed $179,000 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    This home is located in the beautiful Age Restricted senior community of Niles Canyon. At 1368 sq ft , this home has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The home has been upgraded with double paned windows, laminate floors, newer carpet, and swamp cooler. Also the owners replaced the water heater in 2015. The kitchen features built-in microwave, dish washer, built-in oven, gas stove, and refrigerator. Another feature of the home is the amazing views of the hills and side yard perfect for gardening.

20. 2015-09-04
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold
21. 2015-08-01
    status Pending
22. 2015-07-29
    listed $78,800 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,820
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,322
• − Management: −$3,322
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable income: $15,118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,628
• After-tax cash flow: $13,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614400
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,489
• Composite: 72.94/100
• National rank: #191
• State rank: #23 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fremont

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #561

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fremont, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 228,297
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,619
• Household income: $167,662
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2414.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 51% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Other Indo-European 17% Chinese 11% Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1370.22%
• Current HPI: 388.7956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+138.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $188,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-04-23 Sold (MLS) $168,000 MLSListings
• 2020-03-10 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2020-02-27 Listed $179,000 MLSListings
• 2015-09-04 Sold (MLS) $70,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-08-01 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-07-29 Listed $78,800 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR