952 Packard St · Decatur, IL 62522

$49,900

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 947 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1905 7,240 sqft lot $53/sqft · 50% above area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained home with numerous updates including 90% efficient furnace, water heater and water lines, roof, siding and windows. The layout has been thoughtfully reconfigured to offer a spacious full bathroom and convenient main floor laundry. Now a comfortable 1 bedroom, this home provides efficient living with major updates completed. The privacy fence in new and the deck on the back has electrical ran to it. Unfinished basement offers a workshop area and bathroom area. Attic has the potential of more rooms.

Key facts

• Roof
• Water heater
• Windows

Tags

• 90% EFFICIENT FURNACE
• WATER HEATER
• ROOF
• SIDING
• WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built with crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fenced yard; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas water heater; Microwave; Unfinished, partial crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($960 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.05%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $33,176
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: 50.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1429 Walnut Grove Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (+1)	884 (-7%)	1mo	$35,000	$40	66
1059 Packard St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (+1)	837 (-12%)	3mo	$76,500	$91	65
228 Home Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	966 (+2%)	0mo	$15,000	$16	58
1460 N Monroe St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (+1)	990 (+4%)	10mo	$40,000	$40	56
947 N Hill Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (+1)	832 (-12%)	3mo	$54,500	$66	56
685 W Division St	0.48mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,000 (+6%)	12mo	$30,000	$30	53
909 W Cushing St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (+1)	838 (-12%)	5mo	$32,000	$38	53
780 Cushing St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (+11%)	5mo	$25,000	$24	52
1530 W Cushing St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (+1)	972 (+3%)	6mo	$64,500	$66	51
1920 Gebhart Ct	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	873 (-8%)	4mo	$52,000	$60	42
917 Wilder Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0 (+1)	804 (-15%)	7mo	$54,000	$67	42
1915 Monroe St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+12%)	7mo	$47,500	$45	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $20,129
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $53,850
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62522

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $960 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $399

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1311 N Walnut Grove Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	781	$1,100	$1.41	44d	1	0.20mi
853 N College St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	44d	1	0.44mi
1908 N Union St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	704	$899	$1.28	44d	1	0.87mi
2148 N Graceland Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,195	$1.38	44d	1	0.89mi
1091 N Oakcrest Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	672	$950	$1.41	44d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $59,200 Active 518-char remark
18. 2020-05-04
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 93.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$922
• − Management: −$922
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $4,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 15,185
• Household income: $50,669
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.64%
• Current HPI: 180.7847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $49,900 CIBR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $59,200 CIBR
• 2020-05-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $396 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.