406 E Main St · Cuero, TX 77954

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $155k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Main Street Victorian Cottage Fixer-Upper Charming 2 Bedroom Home with Original Details Don & acirc; & euro; & trade; t miss this opportunity to own a Main Street Victorian Cottage with tons of potential! This fixer-upper is being sold as-is, with no warranties. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, the home is conveniently located within walking distance to downtown, making it perfect for those who value accessibility and community. Step inside to discover 12-foot ceilings, stunning original features, including an elegant wood door with beveled glass inset and beautiful parquet and hardwood floors throughout the front bedroom, foyer, living, and dining rooms. The home is equipp

Key facts

• Beveled glass inset
• Original details
• 12 foot ceilings

Tags

• MAIN STREET VICTORIAN COTTAGE
• ORIGINAL DETAILS
• 12 FOOT CEILINGS
• ELEGANT WOOD DOOR
• BEVELED GLASS INSET
• PARQUET AND HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.1% in Cuero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#617 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cuero ISD (town): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #454 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9 units permitted in DeWitt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeWitt County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,675 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.44%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,316
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Second St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,218 (+1%)	6mo	$154,500	$127	53
208 Villa St	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,368 (+14%)	8mo	$183,900	$134	50
901 E Sarah St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,349 (+12%)	8mo	$174,500	$129	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,283
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,160
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77954

• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,316

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $277	+0% $233	+5% $189	+10% $145
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $169	+0% $233	+5% $296	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $272	base $233	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
921 E Courthouse St Cuero, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	45d	1	0.48mi
909 2nd St Cuero, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,500	$2.04	45d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,950 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$887/yr (+$74/mo · 45.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $323
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$78
• After-tax cash flow: $2,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cuero ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,956
• Composite: 32.52/100
• National rank: #5700
• State rank: #454 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cuero

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #617
• US rank: #11713

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cuero, TX
• City population: 11,007
• Population (ZIP): 11,007

Population outlook (DeWitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,271 people
• By 2030: 22,953 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 24,396 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 25,921 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 29,672 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 29,516 · +32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · DeWitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+63.8 2012: R+55.1 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.54%
• Current HPI: 171.7238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $155,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,950 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.