Plan 1042 Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$184,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Dedicated pantry
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS

🏗️ New construction. The $184,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $235,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2167 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,145 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,000
• List price: $184,995
• Delta: -21.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32534 Old Hempstead Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	5mo	$235,000	$233	64
628 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (+18%)	7mo	$210,754	$171	46
222 Pecan Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,181 (+13%)	17mo	$215,000	$182	40
563 Broken Boulder St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (+18%)	24mo	$226,255	$183	38
18419 Buddy Riley Blvd	0.77mi	2/1.0	900 (-14%)	2mo	$550,000	$611	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $108,104
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $322,091
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $254,995 ($202/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +11.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 2167
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $200,216

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-159	+0% $-240	+5% $-322	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-310	+0% $-240	+5% $-171	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-122	-0.5pp $-181	base $-240	+0.5pp $-301	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	120d	1	0.12mi
627 Coyote Canyon Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,799	$1.28	54d	1	0.18mi
41655 Sorrel Spring Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,825	$1.30	45d	1	0.20mi
811 Cloyd Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	5d	7	0.74mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $184,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family planActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 514 Sabino Sky Ct, Magnolia TX 77354

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Plan 1042)Living area of 1,042

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-27
   days on market $184,995 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-08-25
   days on market $184,995 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-08-24
   days on market $184,995 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-08-23
   days on market $184,995 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-08-22
   days on market $184,995 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-08-21
   days on market $184,995 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-08-20
   days on market $184,995 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-08-19
   days on market $184,995 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-08-18
   days on market $184,995 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-08-17
    days on market $184,995 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-08-16
    days on market $184,995 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-08-15
    days on market $184,995 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-08-14
    days on market $184,995 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-08-13
    days on market $184,995 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-08-12
    days on market $184,995 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-08-11
    days on market $184,995 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-08-10
    days on market $184,995 Active 13 DOM
18. 2026-08-09
    days on market $184,995 Active 12 DOM
19. 2026-08-08
    days on market $184,995 Active 11 DOM
20. 2026-08-06
    days on market $184,995 Active 9 DOM
21. 2026-08-05
    days on market $184,995 Active 8 DOM
22. 2026-08-04
    days on market $184,995 Active 7 DOM
23. 2026-08-03
    days on market $184,995 Active 6 DOM
24. 2026-07-31
    days on market $184,995 Active 3 DOM
25. 2026-07-28
    days on marketlisting id $184,995 Active 1 DOM
26. 2026-07-24
    days on market $184,995 Active 197 DOM
27. 2026-07-23
    days on market $184,995 Active 196 DOM
28. 2026-07-22
    days on market $184,995 Active 195 DOM
29. 2026-07-21
    days on market $184,995 Active 194 DOM
30. 2026-07-20
    days on market $184,995 Active 193 DOM
31. 2026-07-18
    days on market $184,995 Active 190 DOM
32. 2026-07-16
    days on market $184,995 Active 189 DOM
33. 2026-07-15
    days on market $184,995 Active 188 DOM
34. 2026-07-14
    days on market $184,995 Active 187 DOM
35. 2026-07-13
    days on market $184,995 Active 186 DOM
36. 2026-07-11
    days on market $184,995 Active 184 DOM
37. 2026-07-10
    days on market $184,995 Active 183 DOM
38. 2026-07-09
    days on market $184,995 Active 182 DOM
39. 2026-07-07
    days on market $184,995 Active 180 DOM
40. 2026-07-06
    days on market $184,995 Active 179 DOM
41. 2026-07-06
    days on market $184,995 Active 178 DOM
42. 2026-07-05
    days on market $184,995 Active 177 DOM
43. 2026-07-03
    days on market $184,995 Active 176 DOM
44. 2026-07-02
    days on market $184,995 Active 175 DOM
45. 2026-07-01
    days on market $184,995 Active 174 DOM
46. 2026-06-30
    days on market $184,995 Active 173 DOM
47. 2026-06-29
    days on market $184,995 Active 172 DOM
48. 2026-06-28
    days on market $184,995 Active 171 DOM
49. 2026-06-27
    days on market $184,995 Active 170 DOM
50. 2026-06-26
    days on market $184,995 Active 169 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$7,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,691
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Magnolia, TX, is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good ROI with updates that can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace the garage door seals — Improves energy efficiency and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Magnolia J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $184,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family planActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 514 Sabino Sky Ct, Magnolia TX 77354

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Plan 1042)Living area of 1,042