Essence Plan · Rendon, TX 76028

$62,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 56 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Rancho Serenidad in Burleson, TX! This new 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 sq. ft. of bright, open living space with a functional layout and a dedicated laundry area for added convenience. The modern kitchen with stainless-steel appliances flows into a spacious living area-perfect for everyday living or entertaining-while the private primary suite features its own en suite bath. Enjoy members-only, resort-style amenities including a 24-hour fitness center, swimming pool, playground, and a staffed clubhouse with a coffee lounge. Plus, professional lawn care is included, and all amenities are covered in your site rent-making life here even easier. Rent-to-own and on-site financ

Key facts

• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $62,995

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Plan named Essence; New construction plan
• Construction: Living area approximately 1216; Built as part of the Essence plan
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms; 3 total bedrooms

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $63k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 2.4% in Rendon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Everman ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #691 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $435 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,105 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.59%
• DSCR: 4.32
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $57,303
• Equity at exit: $9,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.40×
• Total profit: $130,523
• Equity at exit: $5,447

Cash invested: $17,639 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$79 /mo · $945/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $1,096

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $62,995

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,140	-5% $1,118	+0% $1,096	+5% $1,075	+10% $1,053
Rent	-10% $943	-5% $1,020	+0% $1,096	+5% $1,173	+10% $1,250
Rate	-1.0pp $1,128	-0.5pp $1,112	base $1,096	+0.5pp $1,080	+1.0pp $1,064

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,749
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1800 Oak Grove Rd E Burleson, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1392	$1,795	$1.29	1d	14	0.15mi
1680 Crested Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,895	$1.34	13d	1	0.17mi
1617 Crested Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	44d	1	0.23mi
1644 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,860	$1.33	44d	1	0.28mi
1612 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,925	$1.36	44d	1	0.30mi
1633 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,905	$1.50	44d	1	0.32mi
1508 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.0	1098	$1,599	$1.46	44d	1	0.37mi
1452 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.5	1098	$1,595	$1.45	20d	1	0.40mi
1461 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,739	$1.37	7d	1	0.41mi
1424 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1332	$1,590	$1.19	13d	1	0.43mi
1437 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,800	$1.53	44d	1	0.44mi
1433 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	1316	$2,075	$1.58	44d	1	0.44mi
10716 Wild Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,595	$1.49	20d	1	0.50mi
10745 Many Oaks Dr Fort Worth, TX	2.0	1.0	997	$1,595	$1.60	25d	1	0.50mi
1408 Silver Spruce Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	19d	1	0.51mi
10628 Wild Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1312	$1,740	$1.33	4d	1	0.55mi
1312 Nelson Pl Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,820	$1.48	44d	1	0.70mi
1209 Brownford Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,875	$1.25	44d	1	0.89mi
1300 Hazelnut Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,300	$1.59	5d	1	0.94mi
10613 Flamewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,550	$1.17	44d	1	0.98mi
10525 Flamewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,849	$1.28	3d	1	1.00mi
10640 Towerwood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,696	$1.19	7d	1	1.02mi
10632 Towerwood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,750	$1.27	25d	1	1.03mi
1500 Four Seasons Ln Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,400	$1.60	22d	1	1.16mi
10436 Phantom Hill Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,885	$1.26	7d	1	1.16mi
1456 Palamedes Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	5d	1	1.18mi
757 Dema Ln Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,869	$1.31	3d	1	1.22mi
916 Buffalo Springs Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,840	$1.38	7d	1	1.25mi
741 Dema Ln Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,000	$1.38	25d	1	1.26mi
12220 Hunters Crossing Ln Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,789	$1.29	44d	1	1.40mi
1444 Harvester Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1840	$2,080	$1.13	1d	1	1.40mi
901 E Rendon Crowley Rd Burleson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1181	$2,745	$2.32	1d	49	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,995 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,995 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,995 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,995 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,995 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,995 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $62,995 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $62,995 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $62,995 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $62,995 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,995 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,995 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,995 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $62,995 Active 747-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$945
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $12,924
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,102
• After-tax cash flow: $10,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior. It offers a good balance of functionality and style, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters. With some minor updates, it can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing dated flooring with something more modern can significantly increase the home's value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for both buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can make the home more attractive and increase its curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing dated flooring with something more modern can significantly increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can make the home more attractive and increase its curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Everman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,803
• Composite: 22.77/100
• National rank: #8027
• State rank: #691 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rendon

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #13917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rendon, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B