1948 Lullaby Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$124,999

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1988 4,791 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover your perfect slice of paradise in this delightful 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home, ideally situated in sunny Holiday, Florida. Step inside and be greeted by a spacious and inviting living area, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The well-appointed kitchen offers ample counter space and storage, making meal preparation a breeze. Each of the two bedrooms provides a comfortable retreat, with the master bedroom featuring an en-suite bathroom for added convenience. Outside, you'll find a lovely yard, ideal for enjoying the Florida sunshine, gardening, or simply unwinding with a good book. The community itself offers a friendly atmosphere and is conveniently located near loca

Key facts

• En-suite bathroom
• Lovely yard
• Conveniently located

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• LOVELY YARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.11 acre on an asphalt road
• Financial info: Total annual fees $432; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA present; monthly fee $36; Association fees are required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Home faces west; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating specified; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.6% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 328 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $125k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.58%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1919 Pleasure Dr	0.08mi	2/1.5 (+1)	746 (-3%)	1mo	$70,000	$94	83
1814 Hoyle Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	795 (+4%)	6mo	$65,000	$82	71
2014 Kepner Dr	0.08mi	2/1.5 (+1)	848 (+10%)	5mo	$74,000	$87	68
2119 Lullaby Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (+1)	877 (+14%)	2mo	$50,000	$57	63
4244 Buena Vista Ln	0.22mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (-9%)	6mo	$50,000	$71	61
1843 Hoyle Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	692 (-10%)	9mo	$50,000	$72	58
1810 Speck Dr	0.23mi	1/1.0	672 (-12%)	9mo	$91,500	$136	57
2100 Manoa Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	5mo	$100,000	$116	56
2004 Pleasure Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0 (+1)	880 (+15%)	10mo	$95,000	$108	55
4249 Morlock Ln	0.28mi	2/1.5 (+1)	848 (+10%)	10mo	$87,000	$103	54
2050 Lullaby Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (-12%)	14mo	$70,000	$104	54
2039 Kona Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	6mo	$150,000	$174	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,478
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,383
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 328
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $124,999

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $307	-5% $264	+0% $221	+5% $178	+10% $135
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $165	+0% $221	+5% $277	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $253	base $221	+0.5pp $189	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	25d	1	0.10mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	21d	1	0.18mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	25d	1	0.26mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	25d	1	0.33mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	25d	1	0.33mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	16d	1	0.38mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	25d	1	0.39mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	6d	1	0.42mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	25d	1	0.43mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	25d	1	0.44mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	25d	1	0.46mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	0d	1	0.48mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	25d	1	0.48mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	16d	1	0.48mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	25d	1	0.49mi
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,623	$1.60	0d	1	0.49mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	25d	1	0.63mi
3513 Trask Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,249	$1.25	25d	1	0.76mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,176	$1.14	3d	13	0.78mi
3405 Wilson Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	861	$1,650	$1.92	25d	1	0.79mi
1624 Springdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	6d	1	0.80mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	19d	1	0.83mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,099	$1.28	0d	7	0.85mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	6d	1	0.87mi
3433 Atlantis Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	25d	1	0.89mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	25d	1	0.94mi
3838 Staysail Ln Unit 3838 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1114	$1,500	$1.35	25d	1	0.95mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	25d	1	1.01mi
3531 Rosewater Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	907	$1,795	$1.98	25d	1	1.03mi
3143 Pinon Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,695	$1.64	23d	1	1.06mi
3530 Oxford Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,495	$1.38	23d	1	1.08mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	16d	1	1.09mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	25d	1	1.09mi
5338 Nancy Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,430	$1.66	25d	1	1.18mi
3052 Salton St Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,600	$1.50	25d	1	1.22mi
1440 Brixton Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	952	$1,707	$1.79	25d	1	1.23mi
5409 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,225	$1.96	25d	1	1.25mi
1351 Whitehall Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,550	$1.44	25d	1	1.25mi
5419 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,200	$1.92	13d	1	1.26mi
5441 Oceanic Rd Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	25d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,999 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,999 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,999 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,999 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,999 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $124,999 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,999 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,999 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,999 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-03-25
    price $124,999
11. 2026-03-23
    price $134,990
12. 2026-01-23
    listed $149,999 Active
13. 2006-05-05
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,362
• − Management: −$1,362
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$176
• After-tax cash flow: $2,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $124,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $134,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $149,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $212 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.