12516 Garland Ave · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition 5,474 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home located in a desirable community featuring a pool and park. Freshly painted interior offers a bright, move-in ready feel. this home also features a storage shed and convenient parking—everything you need for easy living at an affordable price.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Pool
• Convenient parking

Tags

• POOL
• STORAGE SHED
• CONVENIENT PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,296 square feet
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $1,030 (recurring)
• HOA & community: Land is leased (land lease payment applies)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas service
• Home design: Residential single-story (one level); Manufactured home
• Construction: Foundation present
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Storage shed on property; Lot approximately 126' x 43'

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: No basement; Front porch
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (7'x7')

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $889 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.08%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $40,965
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $110,916
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $958	-5% $923	+0% $889	+5% $854	+10% $819
Rent	-10% $731	-5% $810	+0% $889	+5% $968	+10% $1,047
Rate	-1.0pp $939	-0.5pp $914	base $889	+0.5pp $863	+1.0pp $836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7405 123rd St W Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	970	$1,599	$1.65	25d	2	0.25mi
12635 Germane Ave Unit 1 St Paul, MN	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,170	$1.24	25d	1	0.31mi
12655 Germane Ave Apt 5 St Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,495	$1.25	17d	1	0.32mi
12685 Germane Ave Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1560	$2,195	$1.41	4d	5	0.33mi
12733 Germane Ave Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,580	$1.50	25d	5	0.35mi
12790 Germane Ave Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$1,650	$1.50	25d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-09
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-11
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $9,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,315
• After-tax cash flow: $8,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with fresh paint and a clean interior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior will further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value
• Both Update kitchen backsplash — Modernizes kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Update kitchen backsplash — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $100,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid