65 Watchogue Ave · East Moriches, NY 11940

$1,675,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,452 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1915 0.51 ac lot $485/sqft · 38% above area Est $1210k · 38% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on a quiet dead-end street with Moriches Bay access at the end, this builder’s own custom home offers more than 3,400+/- square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in a peaceful coastal setting where privacy and convenience come together. Originally built in 1915 and fully renovated in 2006, the home honors its architectural roots while incorporating updated finishes that support comfortable, everyday living. The result is a warm and inviting space with timeless character and modern function. The main level features a formal foyer, a dedicated office with built-in shelving and storage, and an oversized living room anchored by a custom entertainment unit and wood-burning fireplace. The adjacent formal dining room is filled with natural light and features French doors that open to a covered outdoor lanai, creating an easy flow for entertaining or relaxed evenings at home. The chef’s kitchen offers generous island seating, Bosch appliances, and a gas fireplace that adds both charm and ambiance. Also on the first floor: a mudroom with laundry and powder room, an en-suite den perfect for guests, a gym space, and hardwood flooring throughout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with a large outfitted closet, soaking tub, tray ceilings, and a private balcony overlooking the property’s elevated grounds. Three additional bedrooms share a well-appointed full bath with an attached washroom for added functionality and ease. Designed for year-round enjoyment, the backyard offers a seamless extension of the home with a covered lanai just off the kitchen and dining area, a detached two-car garage, a 20x40 in-ground pool tastefully surrounded by a large blue stone patio, outdoor shower and dressing room, and professionally landscaped grounds with lighting that enhances the setting day and night. With buy-in rights to nearby Hamptons beaches, no flood zone designation yet convenient bay access just moments away, this property presents a rare opportunity to enjoy refined coastal living in a truly private location.

Key facts

• Moriches bay access
• Custom home
• Mudroom with laundry

Tags

• MORICHES BAY ACCESS
• CUSTOM HOME
• COVERED OUTDOOR LANAI
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• MUDROOM WITH LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.68M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($58k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.68M).
• Recommended offer: $1.52M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.2% in East Moriches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#905 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Moriches Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #97 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $50k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $469k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.52M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $425k; list at $1.68M implies a 294% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,524,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.29%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,209,784
• List price: $1,675,000
• Delta: 38.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
88 Evergreen Ave	0.38mi	4/4.5	3,300 (-4%)	10mo	$2,188,880	$663	63
30 Newport Beach Blvd	0.56mi	4/3.5	3,000 (-13%)	14mo	$815,000	$272	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $34,398
• Equity at exit: $249,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $423,598
• Equity at exit: $144,823

Cash invested: $469,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11940

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,784
• Tax from tax record: −$1,516 /mo · $18,188/yr
• Insurance: −$698
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $4,802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,921

Max offer price $1,675,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $418,750
• Closing costs: $50,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Tuthill Point Rd East Moriches, NY	5.0	3.0	3000	$20,000	$6.67	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,675,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,675,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,675,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,675,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,675,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,675,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,675,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,675,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,675,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,675,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,675,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,675,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,675,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-02-20
    listed $1,675,000 Active 2096-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2096 chars)

    Tucked away on a quiet dead-end street with Moriches Bay access at the end, this builder’s own custom home offers more than 3,400+/- square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in a peaceful coastal setting where privacy and convenience come together. Originally built in 1915 and fully renovated in 2006, the home honors its architectural roots while incorporating updated finishes that support comfortable, everyday living. The result is a warm and inviting space with timeless character and modern function. The main level features a formal foyer, a dedicated office with built-in shelving and storage, and an oversized living room anchored by a custom entertainment unit and wood-burning fireplace. The adjacent formal dining room is filled with natural light and features French doors that open to a covered outdoor lanai, creating an easy flow for entertaining or relaxed evenings at home. The chef’s kitchen offers generous island seating, Bosch appliances, and a gas fireplace that adds both charm and ambiance. Also on the first floor: a mudroom with laundry and powder room, an en-suite den perfect for guests, a gym space, and hardwood flooring throughout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with a large outfitted closet, soaking tub, tray ceilings, and a private balcony overlooking the property’s elevated grounds. Three additional bedrooms share a well-appointed full bath with an attached washroom for added functionality and ease. Designed for year-round enjoyment, the backyard offers a seamless extension of the home with a covered lanai just off the kitchen and dining area, a detached two-car garage, a 20x40 in-ground pool tastefully surrounded by a large blue stone patio, outdoor shower and dressing room, and professionally landscaped grounds with lighting that enhances the setting day and night. With buy-in rights to nearby Hamptons beaches, no flood zone designation yet convenient bay access just moments away, this property presents a rare opportunity to enjoy refined coastal living in a truly private location.

15. 2006-05-25
    soldstatus $425,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $18,188 · $1,516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,248 · $1,937/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,060/yr (+$422/mo · 27.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$93,826
• − Property taxes: −$18,188
• − Insurance: −$8,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$48,727
• Taxable income: $32,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,796
• After-tax cash flow: $49,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Moriches Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609870
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $87,937
• Composite: 64.63/100
• National rank: #528
• State rank: #97 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Moriches

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #905
• US rank: #17704

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Moriches, NY
• City population: 5,508
• Population (ZIP): 5,508

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.56%
• Current HPI: 309.2919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+294.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $1,675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $18,188 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.