493 Wheeler Mountain Rd · Barton, VT 05822

$150,000

1 bd · None ba · 464 sqft · Other public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1988 27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great recreational camp on 50 wooded acres abutting State Land. Easy, year-round access. Drive right up to camp which sits about 1/4-mi off the road. Three-room camp, one bedroom, gas stove in kitchen, gas heat & lights. Close to Wheeler Pond & Crystal Lake. Possible views with some clearing. Priced right!

Key facts

• 27.1 acres
• Solar and wind power
• Hike to summits

Tags

• 27.1 ACRES
• OUTDOOR TUB/SHOWER COMBO
• SOLAR AND WIND POWER
• HIKE TO SUMMITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Aerials and deed documents available

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with dirt and gravel surface; Road frontage on a public, public-maintained gravel road
• Security: Locked gate (assisted showings required)
• Utilities: Off-grid electric; Spring water source; Other (sewer)
• Home design: Cabin-style property; Existing construction; Brown exterior
• Construction: Built in 1988; Wood exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Hilly, wooded lot suitable for recreation; Abuts conservation land and adjoins state/national forest; Near trails and ATV trails; Rural setting; Surveyed

Interior

• Heating & cooling: No central heat
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Seasonal property

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#68 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 157 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (107 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Orleans County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $150k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $140,534 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $33,708
• Equity at exit: $72,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $99,007
• Equity at exit: $116,724

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05822

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,141/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,195

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $208	+0% $166	+5% $124	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $110	+0% $166	+5% $222	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $204	base $166	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2011-06-15
    soldstatus $33,750
19. 2011-04-08
    soldstatus $67,500 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Great recreational camp on 50 wooded acres abutting State Land. Easy, year-round access. Drive right up to camp which sits about 1/4-mi off the road. Three-room camp, one bedroom, gas stove in kitchen, gas heat & lights. Close to Wheeler Pond & Crystal Lake. Possible views with some clearing. Priced right!

20. 2010-11-16
    listed $75,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Great recreational camp on 50 wooded acres abutting State Land. Easy, year-round access. Drive right up to camp which sits about 1/4-mi off the road. Three-room camp, one bedroom, gas stove in kitchen, gas heat & lights. Close to Wheeler Pond & Crystal Lake. Possible views with some clearing. Priced right!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,996 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$854/yr (+$71/mo · 74.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,141
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$118
• After-tax cash flow: $2,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Barton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #15172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,999

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,222 people
• By 2030: 25,399 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 23,350 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 21,232 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 16,543 · -36.9%
• By 2100: 11,566 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.4% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: 27.5pp · 2024: -1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.6 2020: D+4.5 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+24.2 2008: D+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 205.7059
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $150,000 PrimeMLS
• 2011-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $33,750 Public Records
• 2011-04-08 Sold (MLS) $67,500 PrimeMLS
• 2010-11-16 Listed $75,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,141 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.