16600 25th Ave NE Unit Sp 66 · Marysville, WA 98271

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1977 $192/sqft · 84% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

COMPLETE REMODEL, 756 SQ FT, 2 BEDROOMS & 1 BATH INSIDE AND OUT HAVE BEEN UPDATED. LOCATED IN SENIOR PARK ( 55+ Y/0 REQR'D) NEAR SMOKEY POINT, COSTCO, RESTARANTS AND MEDICAL SERVICES AND WALKING DISTANCE TO TWIN LAKES, NEAR BUS LINE. LOT RENT IS ONLY $735 P/M (WTR. / SWR. INC'D), HOME FEATURES JUST COMPLETED QUALITY REMODEL: NEW PAINT INSIDE AND OUT, NEW ROOF & WINDOWS. LARGE COVERED DECK & PARKING AND STORAGE SHED. INSIDE FEATURES: GOOD NATURAL LIGHTING, NEW QUARTZ COUNTERS TOPS T/O & NEW S/S APPLIANCES, NEW VYNAL PLANK FLOORING, LIGHTING AND MORE! CRYSTAL TREE VILLAGE HAS ACTIVE CLUB HOUSE, OUTSIDE SEASONAL POOL & R. V. PARKING. HOME IS VACANT AND NESTLED IN

Key facts

• Complete remodel
• Storage shed
• New quartz counters

Tags

• COMPLETE REMODEL
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• NEW QUARTZ COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.0% in Marysville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#43 in WA, #768 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Lakewood School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #151 of 291 in WA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $145k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.16%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,988
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 83.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $31,286
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $93,373
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98271

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $457/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,087

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $967	-5% $926	+0% $885	+5% $844	+10% $803
Rent	-10% $711	-5% $798	+0% $885	+5% $972	+10% $1,060
Rate	-1.0pp $958	-0.5pp $922	base $885	+0.5pp $848	+1.0pp $809

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2100 172nd St NE Marysville, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$2,537	$2.77	0d	8	0.41mi
2203 172nd St NE Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	631	$1,699	$2.69	0d	6	0.51mi
17500 25th Ave NE Marysville, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,335	$2.42	0d	39	0.60mi
17313 Smokey Point Blvd Arlington, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,738	$2.17	0d	2	0.95mi
18111 25th Ave NE Marysville, WA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1284	$2,225	$1.73	0d	13	0.97mi
17505 38th Dr NE Arlington, WA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,800	$2.67	11d	1	1.12mi
17309 40th Ave NE Arlington, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	660	$2,063	$3.12	0d	10	1.13mi
18321 31st Ave NE Arlington, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	572	$1,900	$3.32	0d	2	1.25mi
18506 Smokey Point Blvd Arlington, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,036	$2.31	0d	15	1.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $145,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $150,000
17. 2026-02-10
    listed $160,000 Active
18. 2025-07-28
    soldstatus $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $457 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$964/yr (+$80/mo · 210.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$457
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $8,732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,096
• After-tax cash flow: $8,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood School District
• NCES district ID: 5304260
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,106
• Composite: 44.45/100
• National rank: #6089
• State rank: #151 of 291 in WA

Livability — Marysville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #768

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marysville, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 85,887
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 30,838
• Household income: $95,654
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 929.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -666.16%
• Current HPI: 305.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+180.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $160,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $457 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.