1510 Willow Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$139,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1875 4,818 sqft lot $65/sqft · 9% above area Est $129k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Niagara Falls’ designated short-term rental/Airbnb zone, this 2/3 double is an excellent opportunity for investors or owner-occupants looking to capitalize on strong visitor demand. Each unit has spacious living and dining areas with well-sized bedrooms, making it ideal for both short-term guests and long-term tenants. A 2-car garage and convenient access to local attractions, restaurants, and major routes further enhance its appeal as a versatile income-producing property.

Key facts

• 4,818 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1875

Tags

• SHORT-TERM RENTAL ZONE
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,637/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 1095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $140k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.33%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,662
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 8.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1635 South Ave	0.23mi	5/2.0	2,208 (+2%)	2mo	$85,000	$38	84
1623 Linwood Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,994 (-8%)	3mo	$100,000	$50	75
1867 Michigan Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (-3%)	2mo	$87,000	$41	73
1145 Willow Ave	0.20mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,304 (+7%)	3mo	$53,300	$23	72
2225 Whitney Ave	0.45mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (+2%)	3mo	$125,000	$57	68
2401 Whitney Ave	0.54mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,168 (+0%)	2mo	$40,000	$18	68
814 Willow Ave	0.51mi	5/2.0	2,072 (-4%)	2mo	$140,000	$68	67
2208 Weston Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-7%)	1mo	$55,000	$27	63
2455 La Salle Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,152 (-0%)	3mo	$112,000	$52	62
609 Elmwood Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,221 (+3%)	0mo	$190,800	$86	56
2463 South Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-7%)	3mo	$137,500	$68	50
2459 La Salle Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-11%)	2mo	$160,000	$83	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $48,740
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $134,498
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,048/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $1,121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,218

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,200	-5% $1,160	+0% $1,121	+5% $1,081	+10% $1,041
Rent	-10% $912	-5% $1,016	+0% $1,121	+5% $1,225	+10% $1,329
Rate	-1.0pp $1,191	-0.5pp $1,156	base $1,121	+0.5pp $1,084	+1.0pp $1,047

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,270
1× unit	3	1	$1,366
Total (2 units)			$2,637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	18d	1	0.46mi
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $139,900 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Located in Niagara Falls’ designated short-term rental/Airbnb zone, this 2/3 double is an excellent opportunity for investors or owner-occupants looking to capitalize on strong visitor demand. Each unit has spacious living and dining areas with well-sized bedrooms, making it ideal for both short-term guests and long-term tenants. A 2-car garage and convenient access to local attractions, restaurants, and major routes further enhance its appeal as a versatile income-producing property.

17. 2026-03-13
    listed $144,900 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Located in Niagara Falls’ designated short-term rental/Airbnb zone, this 2/3 double is an excellent opportunity for investors or owner-occupants looking to capitalize on strong visitor demand. Each unit has spacious living and dining areas with well-sized bedrooms, making it ideal for both short-term guests and long-term tenants. A 2-car garage and convenient access to local attractions, restaurants, and major routes further enhance its appeal as a versatile income-producing property.

18. 2022-07-29
    soldstatus $90,000
19. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed Sale or Rented 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    1510 Willow is a very nice well kept charming 2/3 double in Niagara Falls! Great investment property or live in and rent out the other unit! The upper unit is owner occupied. Lower Unit is vacant. Good size rooms. Full dry basement. One laundry hook up in basement. Nice amount of storage space in basement and full attic. Some new windows throughout. Roof is 8 years old. High efficiency furnace. Move in condition. Appliances in both units are negotiable. Offers will be reviewed as they come in.

20. 2022-06-02
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    1510 Willow is a very nice well kept charming 2/3 double in Niagara Falls! Great investment property or live in and rent out the other unit! The upper unit is owner occupied. Lower Unit is vacant. Good size rooms. Full dry basement. One laundry hook up in basement. Nice amount of storage space in basement and full attic. Some new windows throughout. Roof is 8 years old. High efficiency furnace. Move in condition. Appliances in both units are negotiable. Offers will be reviewed as they come in.

21. 2022-05-25
    status Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    1510 Willow is a very nice well kept charming 2/3 double in Niagara Falls! Great investment property or live in and rent out the other unit! The upper unit is owner occupied. Lower Unit is vacant. Good size rooms. Full dry basement. One laundry hook up in basement. Nice amount of storage space in basement and full attic. Some new windows throughout. Roof is 8 years old. High efficiency furnace. Move in condition. Appliances in both units are negotiable. Offers will be reviewed as they come in.

22. 2022-05-25
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    1510 Willow is a very nice well kept charming 2/3 double in Niagara Falls! Great investment property or live in and rent out the other unit! The upper unit is owner occupied. Lower Unit is vacant. Good size rooms. Full dry basement. One laundry hook up in basement. Nice amount of storage space in basement and full attic. Some new windows throughout. Roof is 8 years old. High efficiency furnace. Move in condition. Appliances in both units are negotiable. Offers will be reviewed as they come in.

23. 2022-05-07
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    1510 Willow is a very nice well kept charming 2/3 double in Niagara Falls! Great investment property or live in and rent out the other unit! The upper unit is owner occupied. Lower Unit is vacant. Good size rooms. Full dry basement. One laundry hook up in basement. Nice amount of storage space in basement and full attic. Some new windows throughout. Roof is 8 years old. High efficiency furnace. Move in condition. Appliances in both units are negotiable. Offers will be reviewed as they come in.

24. 2022-05-04
    listed $100,000 Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    1510 Willow is a very nice well kept charming 2/3 double in Niagara Falls! Great investment property or live in and rent out the other unit! The upper unit is owner occupied. Lower Unit is vacant. Good size rooms. Full dry basement. One laundry hook up in basement. Nice amount of storage space in basement and full attic. Some new windows throughout. Roof is 8 years old. High efficiency furnace. Move in condition. Appliances in both units are negotiable. Offers will be reviewed as they come in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,048 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,206 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,048
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,532
• − Management: −$2,532
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $11,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,863
• After-tax cash flow: $10,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+39.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $144,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-28 Sold (MLS) $90,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-06-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-05-25 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2022-05-25 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2022-05-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-05-04 Listed $100,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,048 · +59.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.