9251 Aurelia Ave · Ruskin, FL 34219

$369,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,209 sqft · Land · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 6,000 sqft lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. Still time to choose cabinets, countertops and flooring! The Gateway is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering just over 2,200 square feet of well-planned living space, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. With 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a convenient powder room, flex room, and a 2-car garage, this home blends spacious comfort with smart functionality. As you walk down the foyer, the oversized kitchen island immediately draws your attention. With a breakfast bar that seats up to seven, it becomes the true heart of the home—perfect for gathering, serving, or casual dining. The kitchen also boasts abundant cabinet storage, a walk-in

Key facts

• En suite bath
• Owner's suite
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• OVERSIZED KITCHEN ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Green features: energy-efficient appliances, insulation, lighting, thermostat, water heater; low-VOC paint/finish and ventilation
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $15 (total annual fees $180); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Crosswind Community Association, Inc. (monthly fee $15); Association amenities include pool, playground, pickleball courts, and fence restrictions; Community features include deed restrictions, dog park, sidewalks, and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 19x20 dimensions and garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Pre-construction (projected completion Dec 1, 2026); Faces west
• Construction: Block, cement siding, and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Mattamy Homes (model: Gateway West Indies)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sliding doors; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; In-wall pest system / pest guard system; Double pane, insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (gas); Laundry room (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $280,078 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.16%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-90,995
• Equity at exit: $55,167

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-140,215
• Equity at exit: $31,990

Cash invested: $103,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,801 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,550/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,256

Max offer price $317,998

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-231	+0% $-359	+5% $-487	+10% $-615
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-470	+0% $-359	+5% $-249	+10% $-138
Rate	-1.0pp $-173	-0.5pp $-265	base $-359	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,498
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	18d	1	0.33mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	25d	1	0.87mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	5d	1	0.94mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	25d	1	1.06mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	12d	1	1.28mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	5d	1	1.28mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	5d	1	1.35mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	13d	1	1.36mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,450	$1.63	18d	1	1.38mi
6915 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	12d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $369,990 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,990 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,990 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,990 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,990 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,990 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,990 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $369,990 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $369,990 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,990 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,990 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,990 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,990 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $369,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,725
• − Property taxes: −$5,550
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,689
• − Management: −$2,689
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$10,763
• Taxable loss: −$10,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,601
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $369,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid