316 Metcalf Ave · Thomasville, GA 31792

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,849 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1880 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment Opportunity: 3 Bed, 1 Bath Fixer-Upper on 0.60 Acres Discover this prime 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property. With 1,849 sq. ft. on a spacious 0.60-acre lot, this home needs a full renovation but has immense potential. * * Key Features: * * - * * Recent Structural Work: * * New bathroom joists, support beams, and jacks, all under warranty. - * * City Inspection To-Do List: * * Includes new electrical, plumbing, exterior doors, windows, and steps to both doors. * * Location: * * Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, parks, and major transportation routes. * * Investment Potential: * * Ideal for flipping, renting, or creating your dream home, w

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Fixer-upper property
• 0.6 acre lot

Tags

• FIXER-UPPER PROPERTY
• RECENT STRUCTURAL WORK
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 40.5% vs local median 3.7% in Thomasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#77 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, commute F.
• Thomasville City (town): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #87 of 174 in GA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,964/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1059% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $45k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 122.03%
• DSCR: 6.43
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,273
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
812 Broad St #5	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,752 (-5%)	5mo	$310,000	$177	62
204 Grady St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,734 (-6%)	22mo	$195,000	$112	58
215 S Love St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,854 (+0%)	20mo	$496,400	$268	57
224 Morningside Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-11%)	5mo	$410,000	$249	54
201 S Love St	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,900 (+3%)	16mo	$377,500	$199	53
204 Lester St	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,758 (-5%)	1mo	$395,000	$225	50
121 N Hansell St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,661 (-10%)	14mo	$230,000	$138	37
115 Magnolia St	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,082 (+13%)	8mo	$250,000	$120	37
161 Lake Eagle Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (-12%)	11mo	$270,000	$167	30
323 Woodridge Trl	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,593 (-14%)	16mo	$239,000	$150	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $74,319
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.48×
• Total profit: $169,816
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31792

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $182/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $1,281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $342

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 Brighton St Thomasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,800	$1.25	43d	1	0.73mi
209 E Monroe St Unit 1 Thomasville, GA	2.0	1.0	1236	$1,500	$1.21	43d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2024-11-18
   status Pending
2. 2024-08-14
   price $45,000
3. 2024-08-14
   status Active
4. 2024-07-19
   status Pending
5. 2024-06-14
   listed $69,900 Active
6. 2024-04-30
   historical
7. 2024-04-30
   historical
8. 2024-04-10
   price $70,000
9. 2024-04-10
   price $70,000
10. 2024-04-10
    price $70,000
11. 2024-03-04
    price $72,000
12. 2024-03-04
    price $72,000
13. 2024-03-04
    price $72,000
14. 2024-01-07
    price $75,000
15. 2024-01-07
    price $75,000
16. 2024-01-07
    price $75,000
17. 2023-12-30
    status Back On Market
18. 2023-12-30
    status Active
19. 2023-12-30
    status Active
20. 2023-12-27
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2023-12-27
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2023-10-24
    listed $85,000 Active
23. 2023-10-24
    listed $85,000 Active
24. 2023-10-20
    listed $85,000 New
25. 2018-12-10
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $182 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $414 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$232/yr (+$19/mo · 127.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$182
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,885
• − Management: −$1,885
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $15,556
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,733
• After-tax cash flow: $11,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thomasville City
• NCES district ID: 1304950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,040
• Composite: 26.85/100
• National rank: #7106
• State rank: #87 of 174 in GA

Livability — Thomasville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #6678

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thomasville, GA
• County: Thomas County · 22,962 people
• City population: 22,962
• Metro: Thomasville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,962
• Household income: $50,460
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1059.0

Population outlook (Thomas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,303 people
• By 2030: 45,052 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 44,034 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,310 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 37,569 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 30,676 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 47% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thomas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.17%
• Current HPI: 228.0107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Thomasville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-18 Pending — TABRMLS
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $45,000 TABRMLS
• 2024-08-14 Relisted — TABRMLS
• 2024-07-19 Pending — TABRMLS
• 2024-06-14 Listed $69,900 TABRMLS
• 2024-04-30 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2024-04-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $70,000 CATRS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $70,000 TABRMLS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $70,000 GAMLS
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $72,000 TABRMLS
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $72,000 CATRS
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $72,000 GAMLS
• 2024-01-07 Price Changed $75,000 CATRS
• 2024-01-07 Price Changed $75,000 TABRMLS
• 2024-01-07 Price Changed $75,000 GAMLS
• 2023-12-30 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2023-12-30 Relisted — TABRMLS
• 2023-12-30 Relisted — CATRS
• 2023-12-27 Contingent — CATRS
• 2023-12-27 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2023-10-24 Listed $85,000 CATRS
• 2023-10-24 Listed $85,000 TABRMLS
• 2023-10-20 Listed $85,000 GAMLS
• 2018-12-10 Sold (MLS) $21,000 TABRMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $182 · +31.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.