20800 NE 146th Ter · Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$39,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 557 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1963 8,712 sqft lot $72/sqft · 50% below area Est $79k · 50% under ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Snowbird Retreat Near Ocala National Forest – Own Your Land, No HOA! ???? Escape the cold and enjoy your own Florida getaway in this fully furnished 1-bedroom cottage, perfectly suited as a seasonal snowbird retreat or weekend escape. Located near the beautiful Ocala National Forest and just about 45 minutes from Ocala and 45 minutes to Palatka this property offers a peaceful setting with easy access to outdoor recreation and nearby conveniences. The home features: • Comfortable 1 bedroom / 1 bath layout • Cozy living room plus flexible dining/flex space • Nicely maintained kitchen • Laundry room with washer & dryer included • You own the land – no HOA fees This property is being sold as-is and is best suited for a cash buyer. Due to the age of the home and repairs needed (including the well), it will not qualify for insurance or financing. Seller will make no repairs. A great opportunity to secure an affordable Florida winter basecamp in a quiet natural setting.

Key facts

• Own your land
• Peaceful setting
• No hoa

Tags

• OWN YOUR LAND
• NO HOA
• NEAR OCALA NATIONAL FOREST
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 5.8% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.53%
• DSCR: 3.96
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,043
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -49.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14775 NE 201st St	0.69mi	1/1.0	600 (+8%)	18mo	$79,900	$133	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $33,022
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $79,705
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32134

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $977/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $389

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $39,900 1036-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

   Snowbird Retreat Near Ocala National Forest – Own Your Land, No HOA! ???? Escape the cold and enjoy your own Florida getaway in this fully furnished 1-bedroom cottage, perfectly suited as a seasonal snowbird retreat or weekend escape. Located near the beautiful Ocala National Forest and just about 45 minutes from Ocala and 45 minutes to Palatka this property offers a peaceful setting with easy access to outdoor recreation and nearby conveniences. The home features: • Comfortable 1 bedroom / 1 bath layout • Cozy living room plus flexible dining/flex space • Nicely maintained kitchen • Laundry room with washer & dryer included • You own the land – no HOA fees This property is being sold as-is and is best suited for a cash buyer. Due to the age of the home and repairs needed (including the well), it will not qualify for insurance or financing. Seller will make no repairs. A great opportunity to secure an affordable Florida winter basecamp in a quiet natural setting.

2. 2026-05-09
   price $42,900 1036-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

   Snowbird Retreat Near Ocala National Forest – Own Your Land, No HOA! ???? Escape the cold and enjoy your own Florida getaway in this fully furnished 1-bedroom cottage, perfectly suited as a seasonal snowbird retreat or weekend escape. Located near the beautiful Ocala National Forest and just about 45 minutes from Ocala and 45 minutes to Palatka this property offers a peaceful setting with easy access to outdoor recreation and nearby conveniences. The home features: • Comfortable 1 bedroom / 1 bath layout • Cozy living room plus flexible dining/flex space • Nicely maintained kitchen • Laundry room with washer & dryer included • You own the land – no HOA fees This property is being sold as-is and is best suited for a cash buyer. Due to the age of the home and repairs needed (including the well), it will not qualify for insurance or financing. Seller will make no repairs. A great opportunity to secure an affordable Florida winter basecamp in a quiet natural setting.

3. 2026-04-27
   price $49,900 1036-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

   Snowbird Retreat Near Ocala National Forest – Own Your Land, No HOA! ???? Escape the cold and enjoy your own Florida getaway in this fully furnished 1-bedroom cottage, perfectly suited as a seasonal snowbird retreat or weekend escape. Located near the beautiful Ocala National Forest and just about 45 minutes from Ocala and 45 minutes to Palatka this property offers a peaceful setting with easy access to outdoor recreation and nearby conveniences. The home features: • Comfortable 1 bedroom / 1 bath layout • Cozy living room plus flexible dining/flex space • Nicely maintained kitchen • Laundry room with washer & dryer included • You own the land – no HOA fees This property is being sold as-is and is best suited for a cash buyer. Due to the age of the home and repairs needed (including the well), it will not qualify for insurance or financing. Seller will make no repairs. A great opportunity to secure an affordable Florida winter basecamp in a quiet natural setting.

4. 2026-04-11
   listed $59,900 Active 1036-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

   Snowbird Retreat Near Ocala National Forest – Own Your Land, No HOA! ???? Escape the cold and enjoy your own Florida getaway in this fully furnished 1-bedroom cottage, perfectly suited as a seasonal snowbird retreat or weekend escape. Located near the beautiful Ocala National Forest and just about 45 minutes from Ocala and 45 minutes to Palatka this property offers a peaceful setting with easy access to outdoor recreation and nearby conveniences. The home features: • Comfortable 1 bedroom / 1 bath layout • Cozy living room plus flexible dining/flex space • Nicely maintained kitchen • Laundry room with washer & dryer included • You own the land – no HOA fees This property is being sold as-is and is best suited for a cash buyer. Due to the age of the home and repairs needed (including the well), it will not qualify for insurance or financing. Seller will make no repairs. A great opportunity to secure an affordable Florida winter basecamp in a quiet natural setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $977 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $977 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$977
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,126
• − Management: −$1,126
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $5,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,400

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.45%
• Current HPI: 224.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-33.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $42,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $977 · +44.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.