16829 W Forrestal · Conroe, TX 77316

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · Land · 82 Days on market

Built 2024 2,042 sqft lot $179/sqft · 9% below area Est $153k · 9% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this adorable cottage! Very well-appointed with all the latest finishes including easy-care tile flooring, stainless-steel appliances (refrigerator included!), granite countertops throughout, lofty high ceilings, low-e windows, soft-close kitchen cabinets, and much more! Home is nearly NEW, clean as a whistle and move-in ready! Both bedrooms have ensuites, one with a soaking tub, and the other with a large custom shower finished with beautiful tile and stonework. The fenced, private backyard is a blank slate, with just enough room to be low-maintenance and ready for you to add your personal touches...perhaps a small patio or deck, or maybe a vegetable garden. Zoned to Montgomery ISD schools. 5 minutes to Lake Conroe! Loads of fabulous restaurants and shopping just minutes away! Also, most of the furniture is negotiable (see attached list)! This storybook cottage is so cute and cozy, you will want to make this home your very own!

Key facts

• Double pane windows
• Tile flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• SOFT CLOSE KITCHEN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.63%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,359
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -8.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,548
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,990
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,548 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $627/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,109

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $426	-5% $387	+0% $347	+5% $307	+10% $268
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $286	+0% $347	+5% $408	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $383	base $347	+0.5pp $311	+1.0pp $274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	45d	1	0.21mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	14d	1	0.22mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	26d	1	0.64mi
1406 April Villas Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	26d	1	0.68mi
1406 April Villas Unit C Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	717	$1,150	$1.60	26d	1	0.68mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	0.80mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1103A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,210	$1.71	45d	1	0.90mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1201A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	923	$1,775	$1.92	45d	1	0.90mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1101A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	821	$1,855	$2.26	45d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $139,900 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Come see this adorable cottage! Very well-appointed with all the latest finishes including easy-care tile flooring, stainless-steel appliances (refrigerator included!), granite countertops throughout, lofty high ceilings, low-e windows, soft-close kitchen cabinets, and much more! Home is nearly NEW, clean as a whistle and move-in ready! Both bedrooms have ensuites, one with a soaking tub, and the other with a large custom shower finished with beautiful tile and stonework. The fenced, private backyard is a blank slate, with just enough room to be low-maintenance and ready for you to add your personal touches...perhaps a small patio or deck, or maybe a vegetable garden. Zoned to Montgomery ISD schools. 5 minutes to Lake Conroe! Loads of fabulous restaurants and shopping just minutes away! Also, most of the furniture is negotiable (see attached list)! This storybook cottage is so cute and cozy, you will want to make this home your very own!

17. 2026-03-31
    listed $145,000 Active 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Come see this adorable cottage! Very well-appointed with all the latest finishes including easy-care tile flooring, stainless-steel appliances (refrigerator included!), granite countertops throughout, lofty high ceilings, low-e windows, soft-close kitchen cabinets, and much more! Home is nearly NEW, clean as a whistle and move-in ready! Both bedrooms have ensuites, one with a soaking tub, and the other with a large custom shower finished with beautiful tile and stonework. The fenced, private backyard is a blank slate, with just enough room to be low-maintenance and ready for you to add your personal touches...perhaps a small patio or deck, or maybe a vegetable garden. Zoned to Montgomery ISD schools. 5 minutes to Lake Conroe! Loads of fabulous restaurants and shopping just minutes away! Also, most of the furniture is negotiable (see attached list)! This storybook cottage is so cute and cozy, you will want to make this home your very own!

18. 2026-03-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Come see this adorable cottage! Very well-appointed with all the latest finishes including easy-care tile flooring, stainless-steel appliances (refrigerator included!), granite countertops throughout, lofty high ceilings, low-e windows, soft-close kitchen cabinets, and much more! Home is nearly NEW, clean as a whistle and move-in ready! Both bedrooms have ensuites, one with a soaking tub, and the other with a large custom shower finished with beautiful tile and stonework. The fenced, private backyard is a blank slate, with just enough room to be low-maintenance and ready for you to add your personal touches...perhaps a small patio or deck, or maybe a vegetable garden. Zoned to Montgomery ISD schools. 5 minutes to Lake Conroe! Loads of fabulous restaurants and shopping just minutes away! Also, most of the furniture is negotiable (see attached list)! This storybook cottage is so cute and cozy, you will want to make this home your very own!

19. 2026-03-02
    price $145,000
20. 2025-12-05
    price $148,900
21. 2025-11-30
    listed $152,900 Active
22. 2024-06-13
    soldstatus
23. 2024-06-12
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2024-05-31
    status Pending
25. 2024-05-29
    status Option Pending
26. 2024-05-18
    price $142,900
27. 2024-05-08
    price $144,000
28. 2024-05-08
    status Active
29. 2024-03-16
    status Pending, Continue to Show
30. 2024-03-06
    status Option Pending
31. 2024-02-15
    listed $141,900 Active
32. 1992-12-18
    soldstatus
33. 1988-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,933/yr (+$161/mo · 308.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$627
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,486
• − Management: −$1,486
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,991
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$478
• After-tax cash flow: $3,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $148,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listed $152,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-18 Price Changed $142,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $144,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-15 Listed $141,900 HARMLS
• 1992-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $627 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.