1261 Ponchartrain Dr · Dallas, TX 75253

$284,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2025 6,011 sqft lot $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Caldwell Lakes - Nash Floorplan - This new single-level home is host to an inviting open floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ideal for seamless entertaining. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked to the side of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile flex space can be found off the main living area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; Seller/Builder listing condition
• Financial info: Association fee billed annually
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with Legacy Southwest management; Association provides full use of facilities and management services; Annual HOA fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: MUD water; MUD sewer; Curbs; Sidewalk; Municipal Utility District; Energy-efficient features: upgraded appliances, enhanced air filtration, improved insulation, mechanical fresh air, thermostat, windows, doors, low-flow commode, rain/freeze sensors
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; New construction (incomplete, 2025)
• Construction: Brick and siding exterior; Composition (shingle) roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Natural stone/granite countertops; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on level 1
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air conditioning (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; High speed internet available; Cable TV available; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Achziger El (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 846 students, 75% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,520/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 497% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $252,028 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.46%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-43,190
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-52,927
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75253

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,520 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,872/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $284,999

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $244	+0% $164	+5% $83	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $64	+0% $164	+5% $263	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $236	base $164	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1249 Eagle Mountain Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,750	$1.51	0d	1	0.12mi
2516 Tahoe Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2087	$2,550	$1.22	0d	1	0.15mi
2516 Tahoe Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2087	$2,550	$1.22	13d	1	0.15mi
15008 Baikal Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2524	$2,700	$1.07	45d	1	0.15mi
1428 Victoria St Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2203	$3,695	$1.68	45d	1	0.19mi
1131 Elijah Way Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,300	$1.28	22d	1	0.27mi
2905 Englenook Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,149	$1.01	45d	1	0.44mi
2820 Jordan Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1758	$1,950	$1.11	0d	1	0.47mi
2806 Balleywood Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,195	$1.19	4d	1	0.49mi
2603 Hutchins Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,975	$1.03	45d	1	0.54mi
15133 Ace Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	2079	$2,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.56mi
1928 Laurel Park Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1889	$2,450	$1.30	0d	1	0.60mi
15127 Athena Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,400	$1.49	0d	1	0.61mi
2708 Corbo Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2090	$2,400	$1.15	22d	1	0.63mi
127 Woodhill St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,950	$1.26	13d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $284,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,872 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,215 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,344/yr (+$279/mo · 178.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,872
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,419
• − Management: −$2,419
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$2,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$682
• After-tax cash flow: $2,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,395
• Household income: $60,874
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 35% White 15% Black 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.55%
• Current HPI: 357.4375
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.58%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $284,999 NTREIS