10430 Birds Nest Dr · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$289,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · Land · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Jasmine floor plan offers 2,182 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with a comfortable blend of open-concept areas and private retreats. The first floor features a welcoming foyer that leads into a spacious kitchen with a large island, pantry, and direct access to the dining and family rooms, creating an ideal layout for both everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, while a conveniently located powder room sits near the front of the home. The first-floor primary bedroom provides a private getaway with a well-appointed bath and a generous walk-in closet. The second floor includes three additional bedrooms and a full bath, along with a large game room that offers flexible space for recreation, relaxation, or gatherings.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT AREAS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• POWDER ROOM
• PRIMARY BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fee collected annually
• HOA & community: Emberly Homeowner Association; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playground, dog park, and pickleball; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential new construction by D.R. Horton; Built in 2026; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private backyard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Breakfast bar; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16 x 10); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (two are approx. 10 x 11 and one is 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Double vanity included
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Solid surface counters; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,537.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,537
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: 1.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $82,167
• Equity at exit: $157,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $232,935
• Equity at exit: $259,223

Cash invested: $85,270 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,597
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,363/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,437

Max offer price $304,537

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $503	+0% $417	+5% $331	+10% $244
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $300	+0% $417	+5% $534	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $570	-0.5pp $494	base $417	+0.5pp $338	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,134
• Closing costs: $9,136
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	1d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $289,990 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $340,490 Active 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    The Jasmine floor plan offers 2,182 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with a comfortable blend of open-concept areas and private retreats. The first floor features a welcoming foyer that leads into a spacious kitchen with a large island, pantry, and direct access to the dining and family rooms, creating an ideal layout for both everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, while a conveniently located powder room sits near the front of the home. The first-floor primary bedroom provides a private getaway with a well-appointed bath and a generous walk-in closet. The second floor includes three additional bedrooms and a full bath, along with a large game room that offers flexible space for recreation, relaxation, or gatherings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,363 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,307 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,944/yr (+$329/mo · 289.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 36% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,059
• − Property taxes: −$1,363
• − Insurance: −$1,523
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$8,859
• Taxable income: $28
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7
• After-tax cash flow: $4,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $340,490 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Listed $340,490 Zillow