2680 Apple Tree Rd · Richburg, NY 14715

$79,900

2 bd · 0.5 ba · 700 sqft · Other · 90 Days on market

Built 2012 9.50 ac lot $114/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

We are pleased to present a ready to finish cabin offering a private, secluded setting with mature trees surrounding the cabin ad boasting a large front yard, big enough to enjoy shoot your bow, adding more sheds, or enjoying adding horseshoe pits, volleyball nets and camping spaces for guests. The cabin itself currently has an open concept of living room, kitchen and temporary bedroom. With plans and space for an upstairs bedroom. Electricity has been connected, as well as a septic system added, but not hooked up. Add a well, and all services would be present for modern conveniences. The property has two driveways, and opportunity to hunt deer right off the back door. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: Timber and GMO rights convey. Metal Roof, Property needs to add a well, and heat source. 3.7 miles to Bolivar, 7.9 miles to Cuba, 8.5 miles to Portville. Taxes TBD. Buyer agent must be present on all showings. Do not send clients out without accompanying them.

Key facts

• Two driveways
• Metal roof
• Large front yard

Tags

• PRIVATE SECLUDED SETTING
• MATURE TREES
• LARGE FRONT YARD
• TWO DRIVEWAYS
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/0.5-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($831 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#994 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools D-.
• Bolivar-Richburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #395 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.50%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,647
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -66.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $23,400
• Equity at exit: $42,374

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $65,475
• Equity at exit: $70,835

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14715

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $994/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $677

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    listed $79,900 Active 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    We are pleased to present a ready to finish cabin offering a private, secluded setting with mature trees surrounding the cabin ad boasting a large front yard, big enough to enjoy shoot your bow, adding more sheds, or enjoying adding horseshoe pits, volleyball nets and camping spaces for guests. The cabin itself currently has an open concept of living room, kitchen and temporary bedroom. With plans and space for an upstairs bedroom. Electricity has been connected, as well as a septic system added, but not hooked up. Add a well, and all services would be present for modern conveniences. The property has two driveways, and opportunity to hunt deer right off the back door. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: Timber and GMO rights convey. Metal Roof, Property needs to add a well, and heat source. 3.7 miles to Bolivar, 7.9 miles to Cuba, 8.5 miles to Portville. Taxes TBD. Buyer agent must be present on all showings. Do not send clients out without accompanying them.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $994 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$994
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$797
• − Management: −$797
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43
• After-tax cash flow: $1,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar-Richburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600012
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,153
• Composite: 42.26/100
• National rank: #3277
• State rank: #395 of 590 in NY

Livability — Richburg

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #994
• US rank: #19418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 322
• Population (ZIP): 2,374

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.40%
• Current HPI: 312.0332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $994 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.