116 Victory Ln · Newry, PA 16635

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1970 0.33 ac lot Est $122k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newry area- one story living, modular home with full basement on a quiet street, breezeway, oversized attached two car garage with ramp leading to the back door, enclosed back patio area, modern kitchen cabinets, updated bathroom, shed

Key facts

• One story living
• Full basement
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• ONE STORY LIVING
• FULL BASEMENT
• OVERSIZED ATTACHED GARAGE
• ENCLOSED BACK PATIO
• MODERN KITCHEN CABINETS
• UPDATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built as a residence
• Exterior features: Level lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Cooling via ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($360/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,638 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Spring Cove SD (town): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #344 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Martinsburg El Sch (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #858 of 1,518 statewide, top 57%, 366 students, 51% FRL); Spring Cove Ms (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #328 of 512 statewide, top 65%, 376 students, 52% FRL); Central Hs (math 57%, 554 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Blair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $105k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $132,217 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,670
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
428 Manion Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+11%)	6mo	$132,500	$113	51
420 Manion Dr	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-14%)	14mo	$105,000	$115	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-22,375
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-16,999
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16635

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,992/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,284

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $72	+0% $30	+5% $-12	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $-22	+0% $30	+5% $82	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $68	base $30	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $149,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   remarks 235-char remark
5. 2026-06-08
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,180 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,992
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$521
• After-tax cash flow: $881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Cove SD
• NCES district ID: 4222530
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,105
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5083
• State rank: #344 of 539 in PA

Livability — Newry

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1638
• US rank: #22643

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,115

Population outlook (Blair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,571 people
• By 2030: 117,966 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 109,174 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 99,542 · -18.1%
• By 2075: 76,775 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 54,326 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.5) · D 27.9% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.3pp · 2024: -43.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.69%
• Current HPI: 258.7396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+42.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $149,900 AHARMLS
• 2022-09-30 Price Changed $129,900 AHARMLS
• 2019-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,992 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.