1951 Carrizo Gorge Rd Unit W42 · Jacumba, CA 91934

$89,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 2001 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1 or 2 bedroom 1 bath with a porch and separate sitting area, a 10 x 12 studio with it's own porch as well as a 10 x12 addition to the Fleetwood park model. Total squre footage of about 640 sq ft. This gem is located in the De Anza Springs Resort in Jacumba, CA. This unit is in space W42, along the most eastern edge of the park and is situated right on the California Anza Borrego State Park boundary, where you have unobstructed views of the Jacumba Mountains, wilderness and miles of hiking trails. De Anza Springs offers amenities such as Bar, Restaurant, indoor and outdoor large swimming pools, outdoor grills, large heated spa, workout facilities open 24 hours, shuffleboard, volleyball, fir

Key facts

• Swimming pools
• Heated spa
• Unobstructed views

Tags

• UNOBSTRUCTED VIEWS
• HIKING TRAILS
• SWIMMING POOLS
• HEATED SPA
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residential mobile home; Directions: Interstate 8 to Jacumba off ramp, west on dirt portion of Carrizo Gorge Road 2 miles to park entrance.
• HOA & community: Located in De Anza Springs community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Shared well water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Composition roof; Common-interest lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Space for up to 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (propane)
• Interior features: Gas range; Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (propane); Has a view; Pets allowed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#1,352 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mountain Empire Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #438 of 517 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.40%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $68,852
• Equity at exit: $80,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.50×
• Total profit: $186,780
• Equity at exit: $172,907

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91934

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $350	+0% $320	+5% $289	+10% $258
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $273	+0% $320	+5% $366	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $342	base $320	+0.5pp $297	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $2,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$617
• After-tax cash flow: $3,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. Painting the exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Deck railings — Slight wear
• Minor Air conditioning unit — Visible debris

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Deck railings · Slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Air conditioning unit · Visible debris	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Empire Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626100
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,413
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8675
• State rank: #438 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jacumba

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #1352
• US rank: #26915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,265

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Current HPI: 287.6055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $89,000 SDMLS