1627 Fernwood Ave · Toledo, OH 43607

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 355 Days on market

Built 1911 2,801 sqft lot $24/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A HOME OR BECOME A LANDLORD. GOOD SIZE LIVING AND DINING ROOMS. KITCHEN UPDATED IN 06. 2 PARCELS TOTAL 0.13 ACRE. YARD BEHIND HOUSE IS FENCED. ROOM TO ADD GARAGE ON ADJOINING LOT. LOCATED ABOUT 1.5 MILE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF TOLEDO.

Key facts

• 2,801 sq ft lot
• Built 1911
• Listed 355 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $666 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.9% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.08%
• DSCR: 5.23
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,972
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -54.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1501 Fernwood Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,259 (-0%)	1mo	$60,000	$48	94
1004 Waverly Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,241 (-2%)	2mo	$58,500	$47	72
1019 Woodstock Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,272 (+1%)	2mo	$21,100	$17	67
2033 Crosswell Pl	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,328 (+5%)	1mo	$101,500	$76	65
1119 Indiana Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,218 (-3%)	1mo	$50,000	$41	64
2026 Hawthorne St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,142 (-9%)	0mo	$65,000	$57	63
1748 Freeman St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,263 (+0%)	2mo	$83,000	$66	62
1211 Woodstock Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-6%)	2mo	$101,500	$85	60
1157 W Woodruff Ave	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-5%)	2mo	$4,000	$3	57
1675 Nebraska Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,419 (+13%)	1mo	$35,000	$25	42
1428 Freeman St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,084 (-14%)	2mo	$3,000	$3	42
1652 Nebraska Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,443 (+14%)	2mo	$40,000	$28	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $43,812
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.44×
• Total profit: $121,307
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43607

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,150/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $336

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1140 Palmwood Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1292	$1,500	$1.16	44d	1	0.51mi
1122 Pinewood Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,150	$0.74	14d	1	0.57mi
2117 Clinton St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,115	$0.89	44d	1	0.58mi
915 Woodstock Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,100	$0.73	23d	1	0.68mi
1785 Tecumseh St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	930	$900	$0.97	44d	1	0.72mi
1026 Oakwood Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.73mi
319 N Detroit Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1341	$845	$0.63	44d	1	0.73mi
1133 Parkside Blvd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	960	$850	$0.89	44d	1	0.77mi
1738 Milburn Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1016	$650	$0.64	23d	1	0.90mi
2322 Upton Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.99mi
1919 Ottawa Dr Unit 7 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	1.08mi
2356 Torrey Hill Dr Unit 11 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$800	$0.76	44d	1	1.10mi
2037 Alvin St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,175	$0.93	44d	1	1.21mi
2030 Wyndhurst Rd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1042	$950	$0.91	44d	1	1.23mi
1436 Palmetto Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1678	$1,400	$0.83	23d	1	1.29mi
2535 W Bancroft St Unit 8 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	1.34mi
2637 Greenway St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1082	$900	$0.83	44d	1	1.37mi
960 W Delaware Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,050	$0.86	23d	1	1.38mi
2447 Maplewood Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1538	$897	$0.58	44d	1	1.39mi
625 Virginia St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$800	$0.80	44d	1	1.44mi
625 Virginia St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	14d	1	1.44mi
1321 Gordon St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1121	$1,050	$0.94	44d	1	1.47mi
3803 Monroe St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	942	$850	$0.90	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 355 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 354 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 353 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 352 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 350 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $30,000 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 345 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 344 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $30,000 Active 341 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 340 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 339 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 338 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 337 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $30,000 Active 336 DOM
16. 2025-10-14
    price $13,500 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A HOME OR BECOME A LANDLORD. GOOD SIZE LIVING AND DINING ROOMS. KITCHEN UPDATED IN 06. 2 PARCELS TOTAL 0.13 ACRE. YARD BEHIND HOUSE IS FENCED. ROOM TO ADD GARAGE ON ADJOINING LOT. LOCATED ABOUT 1.5 MILE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF TOLEDO.

17. 2025-10-13
    price $11,000 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    Bank Owned Property. Great investment property. Great Buy. Proof of funds or pre-approval to be submitted with all offers.

18. 2025-06-30
    price $30,000
19. 2025-06-28
    listed $36,888 Active
20. 2022-01-03
    status Pending
21. 2022-01-03
    historical
22. 2021-12-13
    status Active
23. 2021-11-12
    status Pending
24. 2021-11-01
    price $31,900
25. 2021-10-20
    listed $34,900 Active
26. 2017-12-20
    soldstatus $31,000
27. 2017-09-18
    soldstatus $13,500 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A HOME OR BECOME A LANDLORD. GOOD SIZE LIVING AND DINING ROOMS. KITCHEN UPDATED IN 06. 2 PARCELS TOTAL 0.13 ACRE. YARD BEHIND HOUSE IS FENCED. ROOM TO ADD GARAGE ON ADJOINING LOT. LOCATED ABOUT 1.5 MILE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF TOLEDO.

28. 2017-08-22
    listed $14,900 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A HOME OR BECOME A LANDLORD. GOOD SIZE LIVING AND DINING ROOMS. KITCHEN UPDATED IN 06. 2 PARCELS TOTAL 0.13 ACRE. YARD BEHIND HOUSE IS FENCED. ROOM TO ADD GARAGE ON ADJOINING LOT. LOCATED ABOUT 1.5 MILE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF TOLEDO.

29. 2006-11-06
    soldstatus $34,900
30. 2006-10-31
    soldstatus $34,900
31. 2006-06-20
    listed $34,900
32. 2006-06-14
    historical
33. 2005-12-22
    soldstatus $18,000
34. 2005-12-21
    soldstatus $11,000
35. 2005-12-14
    listed $34,900
36. 2005-12-01
    soldstatus $11,000 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    Bank Owned Property. Great investment property. Great Buy. Proof of funds or pre-approval to be submitted with all offers.

37. 2005-03-29
    soldstatus $40,000
38. 2005-02-17
    listed $19,900 125-char remark

    Show marketing remark (125 chars)

    Bank Owned Property. Great investment property. Great Buy. Proof of funds or pre-approval to be submitted with all offers.

39. 2002-01-15
    soldstatus $49,900
40. 2001-07-26
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$1,150
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $8,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,927
• After-tax cash flow: $6,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,469
• Household income: $41,335
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1157.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.58%
• Current HPI: 175.2772
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-75.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $13,500 NORIS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $11,000 NORIS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $30,000 NORIS
• 2025-06-28 Listed $36,888 NORIS
• 2022-01-03 Pending — NORIS
• 2022-01-03 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2021-12-13 Relisted — NORIS
• 2021-11-12 Pending — NORIS
• 2021-11-01 Price Changed $31,900 NORIS
• 2021-10-20 Listed $34,900 NORIS
• 2017-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-18 Sold (MLS) $13,500 NORIS
• 2017-08-22 Listed $14,900 NORIS
• 2006-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records
• 2006-10-31 Sold (MLS) $34,900 NORIS
• 2006-06-20 Listed $34,900 NORIS
• 2006-06-14 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2005-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-14 Listed $34,900 NORIS
• 2005-12-01 Sold (MLS) $11,000 NORIS
• 2005-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-17 Listed $19,900 NORIS
• 2002-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2001-07-26 Listed $55,000 NORIS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,150 · +29.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.