16 W 16th St Unit 4LN · New York, NY 10011

$925,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · Condo · 100 Days on market

Built 1964 $1338/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Gracious one-bedroom residence in one of Chelsea's most sought-after buildings, The Chelsea Lane. This quiet, south-facing home overlooks the building's peaceful gardens and is filled with lovely natural light. The apartment features an updated kitchen, an oversized living room ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and an extra-large bedroom that offers a true retreat. Beautiful wood floors run throughout, complemented by excellent closet space that provides generous storage. A serene and comfortable home in the heart of Chelsea. A polished, turn-key opportunity in the heart of Flatiron-just unpack and start living. 16 West 16th Street "The Chelsea Lane", is one of Flatiron's mos

Key facts

• 24 hour doorman
• Updated kitchen
• Live-in super

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• EXCELLENT CLOSET SPACE
• 24 HOUR DOORMAN
• LIVE-IN SUPER
• ON-SITE MANAGING AGENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building has 489 total units; Pets: Building allows pets (details: yes/no listed)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee: $1,338; Building amenities: Bike storage, Elevator(s), Storage

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Home design: Condominium building (Chelsea Lane); 14-story building
• Exterior features: Building courtyard; South exposure; Entry on 4th level

Interior

• Bedrooms: Unit includes bedrooms (room level not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Basement: Other
• Laundry & utility: Building laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $925k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $661k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $748k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $661k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,480/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($146k/yr) (locally 3446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($842k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $661,489 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.44%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.34% appreciation · 7.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $148,236
• Equity at exit: $543,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $615,622
• Equity at exit: $954,729

Cash invested: $259,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10011

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,851
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,156 /mo · $13,875/yr
• Insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$1,338
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,571
• Net cashflow: $-1,821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,785

Max offer price $661,489

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,182	-5% $-1,501	+0% $-1,821	+5% $-2,141	+10% $-2,460
Rent	-10% $-2,412	-5% $-2,117	+0% $-1,821	+5% $-1,526	+10% $-1,230
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,355	-0.5pp $-1,586	base $-1,821	+0.5pp $-2,061	+1.0pp $-2,305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $231,250
• Closing costs: $27,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 W 15th St New York, NY	1.0	1.0	562	$9,550	$16.98	2d	2	0.13mi
108 W 15th St #205 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	697	$6,050	$8.67	4d	2	0.16mi
130 W 15th St #1383 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$8,990	$10.65	0d	2	0.19mi
120 W 21st St New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	676	$7,070	$10.46	5d	14	0.27mi
180 W 20th St #1202 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$9,465	$11.96	0d	3	0.31mi
1 Union Sq S #1174 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$10,120	$13.06	11d	3	0.34mi
815 Broadway #204 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	522	$8,250	$15.80	8d	1	0.37mi
160 W 24th St New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	731	$7,896	$10.79	0d	13	0.46mi
177 Waverly Pl Unit 1075286P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	452	$10,000	$22.12	25d	1	0.46mi
776 6th Ave New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$7,700	$10.37	0d	20	0.47mi
364 6th Ave Unit 1023432P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	441	$9,135	$20.71	22d	1	0.49mi
290 W 12th St #1592 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	515	$7,110	$13.81	8d	2	0.54mi
43 W 27th St #1055 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$9,940	$13.43	25d	1	0.54mi
290 3rd Ave #279 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	607	$9,740	$16.03	4d	2	0.54mi
101 E 10th St #1153 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	575	$6,630	$11.53	0d	2	0.57mi
87 Perry St New York, NY	2.0	2.0	748	$18,500	$24.73	25d	1	0.59mi
112 E 10th St Unit 1021937P New York, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1296	$5,772	$4.45	4d	2	0.61mi
250 E 21st St Unit 8D New York, NY	1.0	1.0	688	$9,525	$13.84	2d	1	0.63mi
535 Hudson St #1032 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	550	$6,030	$10.96	8d	2	0.69mi
104 MacDougal St Unit 1056263P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	441	$9,375	$21.26	22d	1	0.69mi
120 Christopher St #1886 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	574	$5,640	$9.82	0d	3	0.70mi
52 Barrow St #2123 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	547	$6,420	$11.73	11d	3	0.70mi
244 W 29th St Unit 2149 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	490	$9,720	$19.84	7d	2	0.71mi
346 E 18th St Unit 1254596P New York, NY	2.0	2.0	699	$12,979	$18.57	22d	1	0.72mi
243 W 28th St #2143 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	580	$8,960	$15.45	19d	1	0.72mi
309 5th Ave New York, NY	1.0	1.0	597	$7,596	$12.72	8d	13	0.75mi
209 1st Ave Unit 1370708P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	602	$12,000	$19.93	25d	1	0.76mi
10 Downing St #131 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	731	$9,050	$12.38	5d	2	0.76mi
139 Christopher St Unit 1021914P New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$5,340	$8.01	8d	2	0.77mi
140 Charles St Unit 14A New York, NY	1.0	1.0	648	$8,000	$12.35	8d	1	0.78mi
155 E 31st St #2190 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	725	$5,610	$7.74	8d	2	0.86mi
93 1/2 E 7th St Unit 1054297P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	495	$10,000	$20.20	22d	1	0.89mi
282 11th Ave New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$7,798	$8.12	0d	1	0.89mi
141 E 33rd St #1278 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	683	$6,230	$9.12	8d	3	0.91mi
535 W 23rd St #1584 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	600	$8,030	$13.38	0d	3	0.93mi
11 E 1st St New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$8,052	$7.60	0d	1	0.95mi
30 Park Ave #1347 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$7,890	$8.31	2d	3	0.99mi
435 W 31st St New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	747	$7,026	$9.41	0d	34	1.01mi
229 Chrystie St New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$6,120	$7.56	5d	3	1.02mi
222 E 34th St #999 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	554	$5,490	$9.91	7d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,338 · $16,056/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $925,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $925,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $925,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $925,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $925,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $925,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $925,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $925,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $925,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $925,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $925,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-05-08
    price $925,000
13. 2026-03-10
    listed $959,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,814
• − Property taxes: −$13,875
• − Insurance: −$4,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,181
• − Management: −$7,181
• − HOA: −$16,056
• − Depreciation: −$26,909
• Taxable loss: −$37,878
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: New York County · 1,599,927 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 48,277
• Household income: $145,987
• Rent vs Own: 64.1% rent · 35.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3446.0

Population outlook (New York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,825,725 people
• By 2030: 1,904,611 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 2,052,719 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 2,206,601 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 2,509,427 · +37.4%
• By 2100: 2,702,933 · +48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · New York

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 82.4% · R 17.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 72.2pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+74.5 2016: D+77.2 2012: D+69.6 2008: D+72.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.34%
• Current HPI: 208.6913
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.06%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $925,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2026-03-10 Listed $959,000 RLS at REBNY