1012 David Ave · Lubbock, TX 79403

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 248 Days on market

Built 2020 7,250 sqft lot $94/sqft · 111% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property! This three-bedroom, two-bath home with a one-car garage is leased through June 2026, offering immediate rental income.

Key facts

• 7,250 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($953/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 405 students, 97% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,039
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 111.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-14,339
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-12,234
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,936/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $992

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $111	+0% $79	+5% $48	+10% $17
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $36	+0% $79	+5% $123	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $107	base $79	+0.5pp $51	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1014 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,030	$1.00	15d	1	0.03mi
804 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	15d	1	0.12mi
411 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,200	$1.00	15d	1	0.31mi
312 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$695	$0.85	23d	1	0.46mi
312 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$800	$0.98	45d	1	0.46mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	45d	1	0.48mi
3016 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$695	$0.71	23d	1	0.49mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	23d	1	0.51mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	45d	1	0.53mi
602 Walnut Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	45d	1	0.53mi
2211 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	45d	1	0.53mi
824 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	45d	1	0.54mi
808 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$695	$0.84	23d	1	0.54mi
3411 E 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	23d	1	0.56mi
2206 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$975	$0.85	46d	1	0.56mi
2721 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	15d	1	0.56mi
2726 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$695	$0.85	23d	1	0.65mi
2815 E 2nd St Apt 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$625	$0.83	15d	1	0.65mi
3621 E 15th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,114	$1.08	45d	1	0.74mi
3611 E 3rd Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,199	$1.04	45d	1	0.75mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	15d	1	0.79mi
1516 E 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	23d	1	0.87mi
2612 E Auburn St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1196	$1,095	$0.92	23d	1	0.87mi
1809 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1203	$1,000	$0.83	45d	1	0.91mi
1828 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1011	$695	$0.69	23d	1	0.91mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$695	$0.63	23d	1	0.92mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$875	$0.80	45d	1	0.92mi
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$695	$0.59	23d	1	0.99mi
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$900	$0.77	45d	1	0.99mi
306 Zenith Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,165	$0.90	23d	1	1.04mi
310 Zenith Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,164	$0.90	15d	1	1.06mi
1808 E Auburn St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	23d	1	1.07mi
2608 E Colgate St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	990	$900	$0.91	45d	1	1.08mi
1711 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	23d	1	1.09mi
2924 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,150	$0.92	23d	1	1.11mi
3116 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	23d	1	1.12mi
3118 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	23d	1	1.12mi
1933 E Colgate St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1310	$795	$0.61	23d	1	1.13mi
2624 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,330	$1.02	15d	1	1.13mi
1918 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,080	$1.05	23d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $110,000 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 234 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 228 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 227 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 226 DOM
18. 2026-03-31
    price $110,000 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great investment property! This three-bedroom, two-bath home with a one-car garage is leased through June 2026, offering immediate rental income.

19. 2025-10-16
    listed $115,000 Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great investment property! This three-bedroom, two-bath home with a one-car garage is leased through June 2026, offering immediate rental income.

20. 2025-09-16
    price $118,000
21. 2025-06-09
    historical $1,050
22. 2025-05-21
    price $1,050
23. 2025-05-17
    listed $1,075
24. 2025-05-17
    historical $1,075
25. 2025-04-19
    price $1,075
26. 2025-03-21
    listed $1,100
27. 2024-07-19
    historical $1,100
28. 2024-07-18
    listed $1,100
29. 2024-04-28
    historical $1,100
30. 2024-03-11
    listed $1,100
31. 2024-03-09
    historical $1,100
32. 2024-01-27
    listed $1,100
33. 2024-01-04
    historical $1,050
34. 2024-01-02
    listed $1,050
35. 2023-12-21
    historical $1,050
36. 2023-11-19
    listed $1,050
37. 1988-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,936
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10376.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $110,000 LARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $118,000 LARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Rental Removed $1,050 LARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $1,050 LARMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listed for Rent $1,075 LARMLS
• 2025-05-17 Rental Removed $1,075 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $1,075 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-21 Listed for Rent $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-19 Rental Removed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-18 Listed for Rent $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-28 Rental Removed $1,100 LARMLS
• 2024-03-11 Listed for Rent $1,100 LARMLS
• 2024-03-09 Rental Removed $1,100 LARMLS
• 2024-01-27 Listed for Rent $1,100 LARMLS
• 2024-01-04 Rental Removed $1,050 RENT.
• 2024-01-02 Listed for Rent $1,050 RENT.
• 2023-12-21 Rental Removed $1,050 RENT.
• 2023-11-19 Listed for Rent $1,050 RENT.
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+69.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,936 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.