7039 Deer Lodge Cir #107 · Jacksonville, FL 32256

$154,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,079 sqft · Condo public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2009 $532/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, location location! Gated community on the Southside just minutes from I-95, downtown, St. Johns Town Ctr, & UNF. Walking distance to shopping & dining. This 2 story condo features garage on 1st level and living area on 2nd floor. Wood flooring in main living areas. Stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops. High-speed Internet and cable included with HOA dues. Enjoy resort style amenities that include clubhouse, swimming pool and fitness center!

Key facts

• $532 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is partially furnished
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include cable TV, fitness center, gated community, playground, and trash service; Association fee: $532 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Additional gated parking; 1 garage space
• Security: Gated community access; Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; Two-story; Residential use
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community pool (not private); Security gate; Owned security system; Smoke detectors; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (23.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beauclerc Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 689 students, 52% FRL); Southside Middle School (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 844 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 518 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,840 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.58% appreciation · 0.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-32,967
• Equity at exit: $33,138

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-52,619
• Equity at exit: $31,291

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32256

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 518
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,339/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$532
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $117,840

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-166	+0% $-210	+5% $-254	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-341	-5% $-275	+0% $-210	+5% $-144	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-132	-0.5pp $-170	base $-210	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7032 Deer Lodge Cir #101 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,695	$1.26	11d	1	0.06mi
7032 Deer Lodge Cir #101 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,695	$1.26	5d	1	0.06mi
7047 Deer Lodge Cir #102 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,870	$1.46	5d	1	0.07mi
7061 Snowy Canyon Dr #110 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$1,650	$1.34	15d	1	0.11mi
7061 Snowy Canyon Dr #110 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$1,650	$1.34	8d	1	0.11mi
8196 Cabin Lake Cir #112 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,775	$1.21	4d	1	0.11mi
6898 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,772	$1.66	4d	20	0.30mi
7104 Stonelion Cir Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,895	$1.30	15d	1	0.44mi
8033 San Jose Village Ln #2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,395	$1.61	24d	1	0.91mi
4731 Radcliff Ct Unit 4761-3 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	24d	1	0.96mi
8300 Old Kings Rd S Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,190	$1.98	5d	18	1.08mi
7500 Powers Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,450	$1.70	8d	19	1.08mi
8030 Old Kings Rd S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	900	$1,659	$1.84	4d	13	1.13mi
6680 Bennett Creek Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,528	$1.43	2d	11	1.14mi
7400 Powers Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	744	$1,392	$1.87	2d	34	1.21mi
4814 Kingsmeadow Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1439	$1,500	$1.04	13d	1	1.21mi
7738 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$2,187	$2.28	2d	13	1.27mi
8290 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,600	$1.59	24d	5	1.27mi
8290 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,450	$1.53	2d	8	1.27mi
7200 Powers Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,378	$1.51	2d	24	1.29mi
3530 Victoria Park Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,152	$1.10	24d	16	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $532 · $6,384/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,900 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $154,900 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    price $159,900
14. 2026-04-09
    price $164,900
15. 2026-03-25
    price $169,900
16. 2026-03-02
    listed $175,000 Active
17. 2020-10-05
    soldstatus $122,000 Sold 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Location, location location! Gated community on the Southside just minutes from I-95, downtown, St. Johns Town Ctr, & UNF. Walking distance to shopping & dining. This 2 story condo features garage on 1st level and living area on 2nd floor. Wood flooring in main living areas. Stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops. High-speed Internet and cable included with HOA dues. Enjoy resort style amenities that include clubhouse, swimming pool and fitness center!

18. 2020-09-10
    status Pending 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Location, location location! Gated community on the Southside just minutes from I-95, downtown, St. Johns Town Ctr, & UNF. Walking distance to shopping & dining. This 2 story condo features garage on 1st level and living area on 2nd floor. Wood flooring in main living areas. Stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops. High-speed Internet and cable included with HOA dues. Enjoy resort style amenities that include clubhouse, swimming pool and fitness center!

19. 2020-09-01
    price $129,900 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Location, location location! Gated community on the Southside just minutes from I-95, downtown, St. Johns Town Ctr, & UNF. Walking distance to shopping & dining. This 2 story condo features garage on 1st level and living area on 2nd floor. Wood flooring in main living areas. Stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops. High-speed Internet and cable included with HOA dues. Enjoy resort style amenities that include clubhouse, swimming pool and fitness center!

20. 2020-08-13
    historical Active - Contingent 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Location, location location! Gated community on the Southside just minutes from I-95, downtown, St. Johns Town Ctr, & UNF. Walking distance to shopping & dining. This 2 story condo features garage on 1st level and living area on 2nd floor. Wood flooring in main living areas. Stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops. High-speed Internet and cable included with HOA dues. Enjoy resort style amenities that include clubhouse, swimming pool and fitness center!

21. 2020-08-05
    listed $124,900 Active 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Location, location location! Gated community on the Southside just minutes from I-95, downtown, St. Johns Town Ctr, & UNF. Walking distance to shopping & dining. This 2 story condo features garage on 1st level and living area on 2nd floor. Wood flooring in main living areas. Stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops. High-speed Internet and cable included with HOA dues. Enjoy resort style amenities that include clubhouse, swimming pool and fitness center!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,339 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,339 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,339
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − HOA: −$6,384
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$4,957
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,192
• Household income: $73,570
• Rent vs Own: 61.3% rent · 38.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2706.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 18% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Current HPI: 216.5115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+28.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $159,900 realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $164,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $169,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $175,000 realMLS
• 2020-10-05 Sold (MLS) $122,000 realMLS
• 2020-09-10 Pending — realMLS
• 2020-09-01 Price Changed $129,900 realMLS
• 2020-08-13 Contingent — realMLS
• 2020-08-05 Listed $124,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,339 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.