195 Riverside Ave · Buffalo, NY 14207

$149,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1905 2,304 sqft lot Est $223k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Investor’s Dream in a Growing Neighborhood! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath duplex offers endless opportunity in one of the area’s most exciting up-and-coming neighborhoods. With gleaming hardwood floors throughout, updated flooring in the upper kitchen, and generously sized bedrooms, this property is as functional as it is inviting. Perfect for investors or owner-occupants, the home provides strong rental potential with its ample space, desirable layout, and proximity to shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Each unit is designed for comfortable living, making it ideal for long-term tenants or multi-generational living. Don’t miss your chance to secure a property w

Key facts

• Desirable layout
• Updated flooring
• Ample space

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL
• AMPLE SPACE
• DESIRABLE LAYOUT
• PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $983 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,356/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $150k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.08%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Philadelphia St	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,118 (+1%)	1mo	$260,000	$123	80
227 Crowley Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (-9%)	6mo	$155,000	$81	72
138 Ross Ave	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,896 (-10%)	8mo	$170,000	$90	71
102 Ullman St	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (-0%)	3mo	$165,000	$79	69
24 Briggs Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,192 (+4%)	13mo	$211,000	$96	66
395 Ontario St	0.20mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,908 (-9%)	8mo	$270,000	$142	64
27 Baxter St	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,028 (-3%)	11mo	$215,000	$106	64
24 Argus St	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,256 (+7%)	7mo	$210,000	$93	63
37 Peoria St	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,148 (+2%)	6mo	$138,000	$64	62
50 Argus St	0.44mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,009 (-4%)	12mo	$230,000	$114	58
18 Lamont Pl	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (-12%)	12mo	$220,000	$119	49
1176 Tonawanda St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,792 (-15%)	2mo	$205,000	$114	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $50,672
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $181,137
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,112

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,068	-5% $1,025	+0% $983	+5% $940	+10% $898
Rent	-10% $797	-5% $890	+0% $983	+5% $1,076	+10% $1,169
Rate	-1.0pp $1,058	-0.5pp $1,021	base $983	+0.5pp $944	+1.0pp $904

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,356
Total (2 units)			$2,356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
61 Baxter St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2014	$1,400	$0.70	0d	1	0.41mi
509 Hinman Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,325	$0.83	0d	1	0.77mi
78 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2030	$1,300	$0.64	16d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-09
   price $149,999
3. 2025-12-01
   listed $159,999 Active
4. 2025-11-10
   historical
5. 2025-11-07
   price $159,999
6. 2025-09-08
   listed $174,999 Active
7. 2025-06-12
   historical
8. 2025-05-13
   listed $199,999 Active
9. 2014-09-10
   soldstatus $49,000
10. 2014-09-04
    soldstatus $45,833
11. 2014-03-27
    listed $54,900
12. 2009-07-02
    soldstatus $20,000
13. 1995-12-01
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,444 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,091/yr (+$91/mo · 309.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $9,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,371
• After-tax cash flow: $9,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+265.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $149,999 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $159,999 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $159,999 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $174,999 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-12 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $199,999 WNYREIS
• 2014-09-10 Sold (MLS) $49,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $45,833 Public Records
• 2014-03-27 Listed $54,900 WNYREIS
• 2009-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $353 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.