3940 Loblolly Bay Dr #402 · Golden Gate, FL 34114

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · Condo public records · 110 Days on market

Built 2002 $1141/mo HOA · 38% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Golf Included! Experience refined living in this pristine 4th-floor condominium featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths, ideally located within Forest Glen Golf & Country Club. Offered turnkey furnished, this residence showcases tasteful décor, quality finishes, and thoughtful upgrades throughout—ready for immediate enjoyment. Forest Glen is a full-service, bundled golf community delivering an exceptional lifestyle. Amenities include an 18-hole championship golf course, tennis courts, resort-style swimming pools, a state-of-the-art fitness center, fine dining, bocce, pickleball courts, and elegant meeting and banquet facilities. Relax and unwind on your private screened bal

Key facts

• Tranquil lake views
• Tennis courts
• Golf course views

Tags

• PRIVATE SCREENED BALCONY
• TRANQUIL LAKE VIEWS
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• BUNDLED GOLF COMMUNITY
• TENNIS COURTS
• RESORT STYLE SWIMMING POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Golf bundled community
• Financial info: One-time other fee applies
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Condo fee paid quarterly; Master HOA fee paid quarterly; Professional management; Maintenance covers cable, golf course, insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, exterior and interior pest control, security, street lights, trash removal, and water; Community amenities include: community pool, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, extra storage, golf course, pickleball, tennis courts, bocce court, putting green, cabana, community room, BBQ/picnic area, bike and jog path, restaurant, sidewalks, streetlights, private membership options

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car carport
• Security: Gated community; Guard at gate
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mid-rise (4-7 stories); Unit 402; Rear exposure facing northeast; Condo within Forest Glen development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Built in 2002
• Exterior features: Patio; Screened balcony; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator / icemaker; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Fire sprinkler system; Foyer; Multiple phone lines; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Volume ceiling; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Common elevator; Turnkey furnished; Great room floor plan with split bedrooms; Screened balcony
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-362 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (25.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#455 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 904 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $250k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,920 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.21%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,943
• Equity at exit: $54,606

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-49,396
• Equity at exit: $52,601

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 904
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,330/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$1,141
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $-362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,481

Max offer price $185,920

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-221	-5% $-291	+0% $-362	+5% $-433	+10% $-504
Rent	-10% $-601	-5% $-482	+0% $-362	+5% $-243	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-236	-0.5pp $-299	base $-362	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3940 Loblolly Bay Dr Unit 2-104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$4,500	$3.46	25d	1	0.03mi
3950 Loblolly Bay Dr #402 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1185	$1,660	$1.40	15d	1	0.10mi
3950 Loblolly Bay Dr Unit 3-402 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1185	$4,200	$3.54	25d	1	0.10mi
3973 Bishopwood Ct E #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1261	$2,295	$1.82	25d	1	0.11mi
3973 Bishopwood Ct E Unit 1546214P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,435	$1.69	15d	1	0.11mi
3981 Bishopwood Ct E #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$2,750	$1.94	25d	1	0.12mi
3964 Bishopwood Ct E Unit 202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,810	$1.28	25d	1	0.12mi
3964 Bishopwood Ct E #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$3,400	$2.40	23d	1	0.12mi
3964 Bishopwood Ct E Unit 1-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$3,400	$2.40	15d	1	0.12mi
3830 Sawgrass Way #2944 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$5,350	$4.76	15d	1	0.80mi
3830 Sawgrass Way #2934 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,250	$3.86	25d	1	0.80mi
3820 Sawgrass Way #3046 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$4,800	$3.90	25d	1	0.82mi
9300 Marino Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$1,962	$1.79	15d	16	0.91mi
120 Bedzel Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$2,518	$2.33	15d	38	1.16mi
8420 Naples Heritage Dr #1415 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1333	$2,700	$2.03	25d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,141 · $13,692/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $249,900 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $253,700 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 682-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $253,700 Active 91 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,330 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,330 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,330
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,901
• − Management: −$2,901
• − HOA: −$13,692
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$8,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,938
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Golden Gate

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #8290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 34,872
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+104.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $249,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $253,700 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $257,700 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $279,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $284,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $289,700 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $294,700 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $297,700 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,330 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.