6306 Waterfront Ln · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$87,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1979 4,050 sqft lot Est $110k · 21% under $140/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wecome to County Aire Village 55+ Community in Zephyrhills with Ownership and LOW HOA (140.00 monthly) includes internet, cable, water, sewer, and amenaties. Florida living at its best with an Active Living community. Enjoy concerts at the 5 Acre lot on the week-ends and endless activities (the calendar of events is available in the office). This Double Wide Corner Lot boast space with LARGE rooms and a Fabulous 12 x 25 Florida Room to spead out. This property has an open floorplan layout with lots of natural light streaming in from the windows and glass sliding door. The Kitchen and living room have wood floors and a built in dining room buffet cabinet for dining room storage. The recent

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Wood floors
• Florida room

Tags

• 5 ACRE LOT
• FLORIDA ROOM
• OPEN FLOORPLAN LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WOOD FLOORS
• NEW A/C

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total monthly association fees $130 (annual $1,560)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Country Aire Village homeowners association; Monthly HOA fee of $130 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, management, recreational facilities, trash, water); Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities; deed restrictions; association recreation owned; buyer approval required; golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits (dogs and cats; max pet weight 25 lbs; number/size limits)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Tandem parking; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; One story; North facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double-wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Corner lot; Paved lot; Trees and landscaping; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (other); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $87k).
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 7.7% in Zephyrhills North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.64%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,824
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39115 Ola Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	1mo	$120,000	$125	58
6246 Midland St	0.50mi	3/2.0	960 (-9%)	4mo	$101,000	$105	58
39153 Hillcrest Dr	0.26mi	2/1.5 (-1)	932 (-12%)	5mo	$70,000	$75	58
39020 Kirkland Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,183 (+12%)	3mo	$100,000	$85	57
39652 Elgin Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	960 (-9%)	10mo	$143,000	$149	57
6233 Ohio St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+9%)	13mo	$120,000	$104	41
39033 Flora Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	903 (-14%)	7mo	$85,000	$94	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $13,235
• Equity at exit: $12,972

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $35,080
• Equity at exit: $7,522

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $951

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $525	+0% $500	+5% $476	+10% $451
Rent	-10% $375	-5% $438	+0% $500	+5% $563	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $522	base $500	+0.5pp $478	+1.0pp $455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.36mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.38mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	18d	1	0.58mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	5d	1	0.69mi
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	13d	1	0.73mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	24d	1	0.75mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.78mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.78mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	24d	1	0.79mi
38719 12th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	24d	1	0.82mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	0.82mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	0.83mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	3d	1	0.87mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	2d	1	0.87mi
39252 Heights Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,050	$1.69	15d	1	1.01mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	1.03mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	1.10mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	21d	1	1.11mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	5d	1	1.17mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	1.17mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	13d	1	1.33mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	5d	1	1.40mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	1.44mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	18d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerinternetcable

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on marketlisting id $87,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 352 DOM
7. 2026-02-23
   price $89,900
8. 2025-12-03
   status Active
9. 2025-11-30
   historical
10. 2025-11-06
    status Active
11. 2025-10-06
    status Pending
12. 2025-05-10
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,424 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,424 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable income: $5,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,206
• After-tax cash flow: $4,797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-10 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,424 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.