Middleton Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$426,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,140 sqft · SingleFamily · 172 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Middleton is a 1-story, 4 bedroom, 3 bath spacious open concept plan with tall ceilings and 8' doors throughout. Study option, gas fireplace with stone surround and extended patio are available options. Gourmet kitchen with countertop dining room for 8 plus separate dining area. Plenty of countertop prep area for the resident chef. Main suite and bath features double vanity, large shower, soaking tub, plus dual walk-in closet, and connection through one closet to the utility room. Three secondary bedrooms and two additional full baths round out this well-appointed single family home.

Key facts

• Spacious common area
• Media room option
• Covered patio

Tags

• TWO-STORY
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS COMMON AREA
• FIREPLACE OPTION
• AMPLE STORAGE
• MEDIA ROOM OPTION

🏗️ New construction. The $426,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $455,801.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $427k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (32.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (41.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (41.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 91d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,121 (41.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.96%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $455,801
• List price: $426,990
• Delta: -6.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1739 Waters Branch Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,266 (+6%)	1mo	$385,000	$170	75
8906 Stanley Oak Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,381 (+11%)	3mo	$384,900	$162	72
8803 Oak Springs Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+12%)	1mo	$383,333	$160	66
1610 Country Air Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,388 (+12%)	5mo	$369,900	$155	58
8831 Morning Glow Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,388 (+12%)	4mo	$370,000	$155	57
2414 Manor Valley Ln	0.47mi	4/3.0	1,850 (-14%)	0mo	$350,000	$189	55
9414 Autumn Vale Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,901 (-11%)	3mo	$360,000	$189	46
9438 Garden Gate Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,901 (-11%)	1mo	$365,000	$192	45
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,901 (-11%)	5mo	$352,990	$186	40
9447 Garden Gate Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-13%)	6mo	$354,990	$190	38
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,835 (-14%)	5mo	$350,000	$191	37
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,838 (-14%)	7mo	$330,000	$180	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-129,474
• Equity at exit: $95,595

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-213,095
• Equity at exit: $88,544

Cash invested: $127,624 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 93 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.7 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $419,990 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 173 d
• This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$570 /mo · $6,837/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-1,166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,987

Max offer price $287,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-851	-5% $-1,009	+0% $-1,166	+5% $-1,324	+10% $-1,481
Rent	-10% $-1,364	-5% $-1,265	+0% $-1,166	+5% $-1,067	+10% $-968
Rate	-1.0pp $-937	-0.5pp $-1,050	base $-1,166	+0.5pp $-1,284	+1.0pp $-1,404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,950
• Closing costs: $13,674
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	0.14mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	163d	1	0.15mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	116d	1	0.16mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	127d	1	0.46mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	90d	1	0.51mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	10d	1	0.51mi
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	69d	1	0.55mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	10d	1	0.55mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	69d	1	0.55mi
2507 Manor Valley Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1870	$1,900	$1.02	10d	1	0.57mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	184d	1	0.91mi
3010 Poplar Isle Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,500	$1.03	0d	1	1.30mi
10602 William Park Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,500	$1.64	130d	1	1.33mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	92d	1	1.41mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	119d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $426,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family planLocated at 8730 Azalea Crossing Ct, Missouri City, TX 77459
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,140

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Middleton (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $426,990 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $426,990 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $426,990 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $426,990 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $426,990 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $426,990 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $426,990 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $426,990 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $426,990 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $426,990 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $426,990 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $426,990 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $426,990 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $426,990 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $426,990 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $426,990 Active 156 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $426,990 Active 155 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $426,990 Active 154 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $426,990 Active 153 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $426,990 Active 152 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $426,990 Active 151 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $426,990 Active 150 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $426,990 Active 149 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $426,990 Active 148 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $426,990 Active 147 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $426,990 Active 146 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $426,990 Active 145 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $426,990 Active 144 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $426,990 Active 143 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $426,990 Active 142 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $426,990 Active 141 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $426,990 Active 140 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $426,990 Active 139 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $426,990 Active 138 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $426,990 Active 137 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $426,990 Active 136 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $426,990 Active 135 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $426,990 Active 134 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $426,990 Active 133 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $426,990 Active 132 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $426,990 Active 131 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $426,990 Active 130 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $426,990 Active 129 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $426,990 Active 128 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $426,990 Active 127 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $426,990 Active 126 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $426,990 Active 125 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $426,990 Active 124 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $426,990 Active 123 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $426,990 Active 122 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 14% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,532
• − Property taxes: −$6,837
• − Insurance: −$2,279
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − Depreciation: −$13,260
• Taxable loss: −$22,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,423
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Sienna, TX is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a clean exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior trim and cleaning the gutters to enhance curb appeal and prevent water damage.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Keeps the home looking well-maintained and can prevent water damage to the exterior ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $426,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family planLocated at 8730 Azalea Crossing Ct, Missouri City, TX 77459
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,140

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Middleton (new construction)