405 E Tullos · Three Rivers, TX 78071

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 1997 Fair condition 6,969 sqft lot $78/sqft · 25% below area Est $126k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy single wide mobile home offers comfortable living in a convenient location close to schools. Enjoy the added privacy of a fenced yard, perfect for pets or relaxing outdoors. An excellent option for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Great rental income potential.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Convenient location
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-768/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $86k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $75k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $75k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#118 in TX, #3,769 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Three Rivers ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #287 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,254
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -24.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 E Alexander St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (-2%)	21mo	$159,999	$135	58
510 E Alexander St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-10%)	8mo	$85,000	$78	54
502 E Tips St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (-14%)	4mo	$149,500	$143	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $11,557
• Equity at exit: $47,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $41,896
• Equity at exit: $76,348

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78071

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$158
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $85,736

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-31	+0% $-64	+5% $-97	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-94	+0% $-64	+5% $-34	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-16	-0.5pp $-40	base $-64	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1870 King David Dr Unit 206 Three Rivers, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	21d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $95,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $95,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-02-01
   listed $95,000 New 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   This cozy single wide mobile home offers comfortable living in a convenient location close to schools. Enjoy the added privacy of a fenced yard, perfect for pets or relaxing outdoors. An excellent option for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Great rental income potential.

4. 2026-02-01
   listed $95,000 Active 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   This cozy single wide mobile home offers comfortable living in a convenient location close to schools. Enjoy the added privacy of a fenced yard, perfect for pets or relaxing outdoors. An excellent option for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Great rental income potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$720
• − Management: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$2,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$582
• After-tax cash flow: $-186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-wide mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Significant damage
• Major Flooring — Exposed subflooring
• Major Interior walls — Paint peeling

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both Re-siding and repairs — Fixes exterior damage and enhances home's appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Exposed subflooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Paint peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Re-siding and repairs — Fixes exterior damage and enhances home's appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842690
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #4381
• State rank: #287 of 826 in TX

Livability — Three Rivers

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #3769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Rivers, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,478

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 33% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 134.8309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Listed $95,000 LERA
• 2026-02-01 Listed $95,000 CBMLS