104 Rainwater Crk · Boerne, TX 78006

$559,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,677 sqft · SingleFamily · 108 Days on market

Built 2026 6,969 sqft lot $209/sqft · 20% below area Est $700k · 20% under $105/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This ONE level brick home boasts wood floors, double ovens, white kitchen cabinets, painted white fireplace, white and black interior palette, home office and entertainment room. Home under construction with estimated June completion date.

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Entertainment room
• Double ovens

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• DOUBLE OVENS
• WHITE KITCHEN CABINETS
• HOME OFFICE
• ENTERTAINMENT ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-948 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $423k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $383k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $383k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.4% in Boerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#87 in TX, #3,046 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cibolo Creek El (math 59% / reading 59%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 471 students, 21% FRL); Boerne Middle South (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 911 students, 18% FRL); Boerne - Samuel V Champion H S (math 59% / reading 83%, grade B+, #114 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,014 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 517 units permitted in Kendall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kendall County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($510k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $383,194 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.25%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $699,900
• List price: $559,990
• Delta: -19.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 Olmos Crk	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,695 (+1%)	5mo	$630,900	$234	90
313 Sanders Crk	0.15mi	4/3.5	2,669 (-0%)	1mo	$649,900	$243	90
154 Olmos Crk	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,776 (+4%)	2mo	$649,900	$234	88
234 Boulder Crk	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,776 (+4%)	0mo	$624,900	$225	88
217 Boulder Crk	0.15mi	4/4.5	2,593 (-3%)	3mo	$629,990	$243	80
235 Boulder Crk	0.26mi	4/4.5	2,593 (-3%)	1mo	$619,990	$239	76
184 Cimarron Crk	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,695 (+1%)	5mo	$550,000	$204	71
128 Cinnamon Crk	0.21mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,344 (-12%)	3mo	$654,900	$279	62
148 Cactus Flower	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,732 (+2%)	4mo	$399,999	$146	60
231 Cinnamon Crk	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,399 (-10%)	4mo	$657,000	$274	59
106 Dry Crk	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,313 (-14%)	3mo	$519,000	$224	51
165 Rolling Crk	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,314 (-14%)	2mo	$385,000	$166	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-147,127
• Equity at exit: $83,496

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-189,205
• Equity at exit: $48,418

Cash invested: $156,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78006

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,937
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$700 /mo · $8,400/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$805
• Net cashflow: $-948

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,032

Max offer price $422,852

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-561	-5% $-754	+0% $-948	+5% $-1,141	+10% $-1,335
Rent	-10% $-1,250	-5% $-1,099	+0% $-948	+5% $-796	+10% $-645
Rate	-1.0pp $-666	-0.5pp $-805	base $-948	+0.5pp $-1,093	+1.0pp $-1,240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $139,998
• Closing costs: $16,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
154 Olmos Crk Boerne, TX	4.0	3.5	2776	$4,500	$1.62	45d	1	0.05mi
310 Barton Crk Boerne, TX	4.0	3.5	3395	$5,250	$1.55	12d	1	0.11mi
137 Saddle Horn Boerne, TX	4.0	2.5	2381	$2,645	$1.11	6d	1	0.65mi
112 Cactus Flower Boerne, TX	4.0	3.0	2667	$2,750	$1.03	3d	1	0.76mi
124 Escalera Cir Boerne, TX	4.0	3.5	2902	$3,600	$1.24	45d	1	1.03mi
138 Gaucho Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	2335	$3,600	$1.54	45d	1	1.08mi
213 Champion Blvd Boerne, TX	4.0	3.5	3211	$3,500	$1.09	45d	1	1.14mi
204 Aspen Dr Boerne, TX	5.0	3.0	2434	$2,850	$1.17	45d	1	1.15mi
109 Milagro Boerne, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$3,795	$1.46	45d	1	1.23mi
113 Valencia Boerne, TX	4.0	3.0	2519	$3,600	$1.43	45d	1	1.24mi
115 La Cima Boerne, TX	4.0	3.0	2930	$3,750	$1.28	6d	1	1.28mi
104 Vail Dr Boerne, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,750	$1.33	45d	1	1.32mi
124 Talavera Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$2,800	$1.52	4d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   This ONE level brick home boasts wood floors, double ovens, white kitchen cabinets, painted white fireplace, white and black interior palette, home office and entertainment room. Home under construction with estimated June completion date.

2. 2026-04-23
   price $559,990 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   This ONE level brick home boasts wood floors, double ovens, white kitchen cabinets, painted white fireplace, white and black interior palette, home office and entertainment room. Home under construction with estimated June completion date.

3. 2026-04-04
   price $599,990 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   This ONE level brick home boasts wood floors, double ovens, white kitchen cabinets, painted white fireplace, white and black interior palette, home office and entertainment room. Home under construction with estimated June completion date.

4. 2026-03-31
   price $619,990 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   This ONE level brick home boasts wood floors, double ovens, white kitchen cabinets, painted white fireplace, white and black interior palette, home office and entertainment room. Home under construction with estimated June completion date.

5. 2026-03-13
   price $649,990 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   This ONE level brick home boasts wood floors, double ovens, white kitchen cabinets, painted white fireplace, white and black interior palette, home office and entertainment room. Home under construction with estimated June completion date.

6. 2026-02-28
   price $653,990 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   This ONE level brick home boasts wood floors, double ovens, white kitchen cabinets, painted white fireplace, white and black interior palette, home office and entertainment room. Home under construction with estimated June completion date.

7. 2026-01-17
   listed $665,992 New 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   This ONE level brick home boasts wood floors, double ovens, white kitchen cabinets, painted white fireplace, white and black interior palette, home office and entertainment room. Home under construction with estimated June completion date.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,368
• − Property taxes: −$8,400
• − Insurance: −$2,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,679
• − Management: −$3,679
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$16,291
• Taxable loss: −$21,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,158
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boerne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810710
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $85,478
• Composite: 54.47/100
• National rank: #1350
• State rank: #42 of 826 in TX

Livability — Boerne

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #87
• US rank: #3046

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Boerne, TX
• County: Kendall County · 44,560 people
• City population: 44,560
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,560
• Household income: $116,156
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Kendall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,273 people
• By 2030: 64,578 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 81,624 · +45.1%
• By 2050: 99,180 · +76.2%
• By 2075: 144,012 · +155.9%
• By 2100: 177,185 · +214.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Kendall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -56.0pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+60.4 2012: R+64.5 2008: R+56.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.83%
• Current HPI: 273.2929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.99%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $559,990 LERA
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $599,990 LERA
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $619,990 LERA
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $649,990 LERA
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $653,990 LERA
• 2026-01-17 Listed $665,992 LERA