23 Hollywood Blvd · Twin Forks, NM 88317

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 311 Days on market

Built 1976 6,490 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the Sacramento Mountains, this thoughtfully modified A-frame in the Quarris Acres subdivision blends rustic charm with practical updates. The home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, with an open-concept living room and kitchen that centers around a cozy wood-burning fireplace—the perfect focal point for gathering on chilly mountain evenings. A covered deck extends outdoor living, inviting you to linger and take in the fresh mountain air and views, rain or shine. The interior combines warm wood tones and functional spaces, making it ideal for a weekend getaway, a full-time mountain retreat, or a compact investment property. Expect wildlife sightings in the surrounding scenery and a welcoming, serene atmosphere that captures the essence of mountain living.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Wildlife sightings
• Mountain living

Tags

• QUARRIS ACRES SUBDIVISION
• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• COVERED DECK
• WILDLIFE SIGHTINGS
• SERENE ATMOSPHERE
• MOUNTAIN LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#74 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cloudcroft Municipal Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #12 of 95 in NM (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.34%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,250
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $54,552
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88317

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 311 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 310 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 309 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 308 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 307 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 305 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 304 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 301 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 300 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 299 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 296 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 295 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 294 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 293 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 292 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 291 DOM
17. 2026-02-24
    price $155,000 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Nestled in the Sacramento Mountains, this thoughtfully modified A-frame in the Quarris Acres subdivision blends rustic charm with practical updates. The home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, with an open-concept living room and kitchen that centers around a cozy wood-burning fireplace—the perfect focal point for gathering on chilly mountain evenings. A covered deck extends outdoor living, inviting you to linger and take in the fresh mountain air and views, rain or shine. The interior combines warm wood tones and functional spaces, making it ideal for a weekend getaway, a full-time mountain retreat, or a compact investment property. Expect wildlife sightings in the surrounding scenery and a welcoming, serene atmosphere that captures the essence of mountain living.

18. 2025-08-12
    listed $160,000 Active 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Nestled in the Sacramento Mountains, this thoughtfully modified A-frame in the Quarris Acres subdivision blends rustic charm with practical updates. The home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, with an open-concept living room and kitchen that centers around a cozy wood-burning fireplace—the perfect focal point for gathering on chilly mountain evenings. A covered deck extends outdoor living, inviting you to linger and take in the fresh mountain air and views, rain or shine. The interior combines warm wood tones and functional spaces, making it ideal for a weekend getaway, a full-time mountain retreat, or a compact investment property. Expect wildlife sightings in the surrounding scenery and a welcoming, serene atmosphere that captures the essence of mountain living.

19. 2011-09-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $4,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $5,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cloudcroft Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500540
• Math proficiency: 28% —
• Reading proficiency: 48% —
• Median HH income: $45,499
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #9996
• State rank: #12 of 95 in NM

Livability — Twin Forks

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #15169

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,633

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 21% Iranian 18% Scottish 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.09%
• Current HPI: 209.5308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $155,000 OCAOR
• 2025-08-12 Listed $160,000 OCAOR
• 2011-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $160 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.