221 Central Ave · Dayton, OH 45406

$134,950

7 bd · 5.0 ba · 5,750 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1900 10,001 sqft lot $23/sqft · 38% below area Est $216k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into Dayton’s past with the Michael Neil House, a cornerstone of the prestigious Grafton Hill Historic District. Built in 1898 for Michael Neil—the visionary who platted the Wolf Creek area—and later owned by Charles M. Seybold, this brick Queen Anne masterpiece is more than a home; it is a legacy. Situated on nearly a half acre minutes from Downtown Dayton, the Dayton Art Institute, Dayton's Historic Masonic Lodge. During the years of Charles Seybold's ownership, he was granted over 20 patents for Seybold Machine Co. He was also an integral part of the creation of the atomic bomb during the Dayton Project/Manhattan Project. Currently featured on Preservation Dayton&r

Key facts

• New gas service line
• New roof
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• GRAFTON HILL HISTORIC DISTRICT
• ARCHITECTURAL TREASURE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER SERVICE LINE
• NEW ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• NEW GAS SERVICE LINE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Natural gas available
• Home design: Three-story brick building
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Residential zoning; 0.44-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Seven bedrooms total; Two bedrooms on the third floor; Five bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; Two half bathrooms; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 7.3% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Wogaman Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #645 of 654 statewide, top 99%, 364 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,656/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 1504% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $934 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,901 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.93%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,067
• List price: $134,950
• Delta: -37.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Central Ave #142	0.07mi	8/3.0 (+1)	5,059 (-12%)	16mo	$220,000	$43	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,138
• Equity at exit: $20,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $32,983
• Equity at exit: $11,668

Cash invested: $37,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45406

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $134,950

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $469	-5% $422	+0% $376	+5% $329	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $245	-5% $310	+0% $376	+5% $441	+10% $507
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $410	base $376	+0.5pp $341	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,738
• Closing costs: $4,048
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,950 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $134,950 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $142,900 Active 1695-char remark
17. 2011-07-22
    historical
18. 2009-10-22
    listed $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,559
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$3,926
• Taxable income: $2,510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$602
• After-tax cash flow: $3,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,991
• Household income: $41,796
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1504.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.75%
• Current HPI: 197.1302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+237.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $134,950 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $139,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $142,900 Dayton MLS
• 2011-07-22 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2009-10-22 Listed $40,000 Dayton MLS