Is 510 Range Rd in Caddo Mills, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 5.4% cap rate and $-205/mo modeled cash flow at a $280,490 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 510 Range Rd?

The modeled cap rate is 5.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,245/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 46.42

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +14.2/15.0
Cash flow +9.3/30.0
Schools +6.2/10.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
1% rule +3.0/10.0
DSCR +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$280,490

510 Range Rd · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,735 sqft · SingleFamily · 144 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,621 sqft lot $162/sqft · 15% below area Est $329k · 15% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 510 Range Road, part of our Trailstone community in Caddo Mills, TX. Discover the perfect family home in this charming Traditions Series floorplan design. From the architecturally detailed exterior with its divided light windows and decorative 2-car garage door, to the warm, raised panel front door, every detail is crafted for comfort. (Decorative front door options are available for upgrade. ) Inside the home, the foyer opens to a spacious living area, ideal for family time. The kitchen, with its 36" cabinets, granite countertops, and large island, becomes the hub of daily life. The primary suite offers a peaceful escape, featuring a dual sink vanity bathroom and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide ample space for children or guests. Enjoy the durability and beauty of laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The innovative tech package and user-friendly smart home system ensure a comfortable and efficient living experience. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

Quartz counters
Led lighting
Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (10.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (20.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $224k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Frances And Jeannette Lee El (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 571 students, 29% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $224,500 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.80% ✗
Cap rate: 5.42%
Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
DSCR: 0.86
GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $329,340
List price: $280,490
Delta: -14.83%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Flintlock Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,735 (0%)	4mo	$287,490	$166	91
412 Tia Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,735 (0%)	9mo	$299,430	$173	86
211 Bobcat Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,735 (0%)	4mo	$294,030	$169	83
413 Range Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+5%)	5mo	$331,490	$181	79
506 Range Rd	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,935 (+12%)	5mo	$299,490	$155	71
215 Bobcat Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+5%)	5mo	$298,990	$163	69
412 Bailey Way	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+5%)	9mo	$300,000	$165	69
211 Buckboard Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+5%)	5mo	$299,650	$164	68
300 Tia Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+5%)	9mo	$283,000	$155	68
402 Range Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,935 (+12%)	9mo	$334,990	$173	63
108 Condor Pass	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (+6%)	4mo	$267,999	$146	62
3159 Ridgeview Rd	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,979 (+14%)	8mo	$509,900	$258	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -21.5%
Equity multiple: 0.26×
Total profit: $-58,440
Equity at exit: $41,822

10-year hold

IRR: -15.1%
Equity multiple: 0.14×
Total profit: $-67,452
Equity at exit: $24,252

Cash invested: $78,537 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 34 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $289,490 ($162/sqft)
Median days on market: 102 d
This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +17.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

Home prices YoY: -13.5%
Active inventory: 369
Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,245 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,471
Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,207/yr
Insurance: −$117
HOA: −$40
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,504

Max offer price $250,847

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-108	+0% $-205	+5% $-302	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-294	+0% $-205	+5% $-116	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-134	base $-205	+0.5pp $-278	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $70,122
Closing costs: $8,415
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,500	$1.21	50d	1	0.01mi
210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,350	$1.17	10d	1	0.29mi
116 Kiskadee Trl Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$1,995	$0.99	32d	1	0.35mi
132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	61d	1	0.50mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,000	$0.99	32d	1	0.52mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2010	$1,950	$0.97	17d	1	0.52mi
152 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	4d	1	0.53mi
218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,195	$1.27	93d	1	0.56mi
187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,195	$1.10	54d	1	0.56mi
176 Mockingbird Way Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$1,995	$0.98	1d	1	0.60mi
125 Smarty Jones St Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,100	$1.24	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $280,490 Active 144 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $280,490 Active 142 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $280,490 Active 141 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $280,490 Active 140 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $280,490 Active 139 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $280,490 Active 136 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $280,490 Active 135 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $280,490 Active 134 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $280,490 Active 133 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $280,490 Active 131 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $280,490 Active 129 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $280,490 Active 128 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $280,490 Active 127 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $280,490 Active 126 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $280,490 Active 125 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $280,490 Active 123 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $280,490 Active 122 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $280,490 Active 121 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $280,490 Active 120 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $280,490 Active 119 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $280,490 Active 118 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $280,490 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $280,490 Active 116 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $280,490 Active 115 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $280,490 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $280,490 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $280,490 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $280,490 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $280,490 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $280,490 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $280,490 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $280,490 Active 106 DOM
2026-06-30

price $280,490 Active 105 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $277,490 Active 105 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $277,490 Active 104 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $277,490 Active 103 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $277,490 Active 102 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $277,490 Active 101 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $277,490 Active 99 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $277,490 Active 97 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $277,490 Active 96 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $277,490 Active 93 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $277,490 Active 92 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $277,490 Active 91 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $277,490 Active 90 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $277,490 Active 88 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $277,490 Active 87 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $277,490 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $277,490 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $277,490 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $26,940
− Mortgage interest: −$15,712
− Property taxes: −$4,207
− Insurance: −$1,402
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
− Management: −$2,155
− HOA: −$480
− Depreciation: −$8,160
Taxable loss: −$7,332

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,760
After-tax cash flow: $-699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Caddo Mills, TX, is in excellent condition with a new floor plan and high-end finishes. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting interior ↑
Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Frances And Jeannette Lee El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Caddo Mills Middle C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Caddo Mills H S B+ TX #82/1,632 Nat'l #1,629/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Caddo Mills ISD
NCES district ID: 4812390
Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $65,383
Composite: 51.73/100
National rank: #1684
State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Caddo Mills

Score: 73/100
State rank: #216
US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Hunt · 97,090 people
City population: 10,265
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 10,265
Household income: $95,428
Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 97,090 people
By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
Current HPI: 275.2189
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

2026-05-14 Price Changed $277,490 Zillow
2026-05-13 Price Changed $277,490 NTREIS
2026-05-12 Price Changed $297,490 Zillow
2026-05-11 Price Changed $297,490 NTREIS
2026-05-01 Price Changed $295,490 Zillow
2026-05-01 Price Changed $295,490 NTREIS
2026-04-06 Price Changed $315,490 NTREIS
2026-04-04 Price Changed $315,490 Zillow
2026-03-17 Listed $313,490 NTREIS
2026-03-11 Price Changed $313,490 Zillow
2026-02-26 Listed $323,490 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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