1566 Ballsville Rd · Powhatan, VA 23139

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1923 15 ac lot Est $388k · 36% under ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you searching for the perfect private parcel to build your dream home? Look no further! Nestled in the heart of Powhatan, this stunning 14-acre property offers endless possibilities for you and your family. Family subdivision is available. The house will not qualify for regular loans. The value is in the land. 14 Acres of Private Land and the old house: Enjoy the peace and privacy of owning a spacious plot, ideal for customizing your dream home. Build a large single-family residence tailored to your needs and desires. This property provides a variety of options to accommodate every lifestyle. Whether you want to create a personal sanctuary, expand your family living space, or invest in

Key facts

• Private land
• Personal sanctuary
• 14 acre property

Tags

• 14 ACRE PROPERTY
• PRIVATE LAND
• SPACIOUS PLOT
• PERSONAL SANCTUARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($4/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.6% in Powhatan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#220 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Powhatan County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #25 of 131 in VA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Powhatan Middle (math 41% / reading 77%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 969 students, 28% FRL); Powhatan High (math 64% / reading 90%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 1,404 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 115 units permitted in Powhatan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Powhatan County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,626 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,942
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1537 Ballsville Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-9%)	24mo	$354,000	$246	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,573
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,641
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23139

• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $71	+0% $0	+5% $-70	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-77	+0% $0	+5% $78	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $64	base $0	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2026-01-07
   historical
4. 2025-12-02
   price $248,000
5. 2025-10-30
   price $258,000
6. 2025-07-23
   price $304,000
7. 2025-04-08
   price $310,000
8. 2025-03-19
   price $375,000
9. 2025-03-04
   listed $385,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$491/yr (+$41/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $1,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Powhatan County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103030
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,302
• Composite: 59.31/100
• National rank: #934
• State rank: #25 of 131 in VA

Livability — Powhatan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #7302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 27,085
• Population (ZIP): 27,085

Population outlook (Powhatan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,489 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 29,584 · +0.3%
• By 2050: 28,166 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 24,221 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 18,871 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Powhatan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.1) · D 27.5% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.5pp · 2024: -44.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.1 2020: R+44.3 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+46.1 2008: R+40.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.42%
• Current HPI: 170.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-35.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $250,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $248,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $258,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $304,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $310,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $375,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $385,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,559 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.