11424 Rolling River Blvd · Jacksonville, FL 32219

$272,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2004 10,018 sqft lot Est $307k · 11% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see 11424 Rolling River Blvd, updated with fresh interior paint, partial flooring replacement, and new appliances. The primary bedroom has a walk in closet; its bathroom includes double sinks and a separate tub and shower. A patio and storage shed are located in the fenced in backyard. This home delivers modern comfort and effortless living. . Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Fenced in backyard
• Storage shed

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINKS
• SEPARATE TUB AND SHOWER
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• PATIO
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association of Rolling River Owners, Inc.; Quarterly association fee of $93; Community amenities include a park; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.23 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-314/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dinsmore Elementary School (math 61% / reading 47%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 595 students, 53% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); Jean Ribault High School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,385 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $272k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,121 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,870
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11714 Raindrop Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,845 (-4%)	0mo	$305,000	$165	72
11262 Salt Pond Dr E	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,044 (+6%)	8mo	$326,000	$159	68
11490 Deep Springs Dr S	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-9%)	19mo	$300,000	$170	60
11509 Otters Den Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,130 (+10%)	19mo	$319,900	$150	56
6376 Spring Hollow Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,844 (-4%)	17mo	$290,000	$157	55
6425 Timber Cove Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,006 (+4%)	10mo	$329,000	$164	53
11388 Riverstone Way	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,071 (+7%)	16mo	$320,000	$155	52
6960 Rapid River Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (-8%)	13mo	$279,900	$157	52
11486 Riverstone Way	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,151 (+12%)	11mo	$335,000	$156	47
11049 Old Kings Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,642 (-15%)	1mo	$370,000	$225	41
11513 Driftwood Creek Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,701 (-12%)	11mo	$290,000	$170	39
6398 Pinewood Hills Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (-12%)	19mo	$260,000	$154	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-52,014
• Equity at exit: $40,556

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-71,686
• Equity at exit: $23,518

Cash invested: $76,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32219

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 546
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,480/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,144

Max offer price $267,372

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $51	+0% $-26	+5% $-103	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-110	+0% $-26	+5% $57	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $43	base $-26	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,000
• Closing costs: $8,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11614 Rainbow Springs Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$1,960	$1.22	17d	1	0.26mi
6407 Timber Cove Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$2,049	$1.33	3d	1	0.61mi
7053 Civic Club Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,180	$1.23	4d	1	1.04mi
12331 Glimmer Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,085	$1.22	2d	1	1.36mi
7843 Greatford Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,779	$1.20	21d	1	1.37mi
10871 Copper Creek Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,145	$1.47	15d	1	1.41mi
10136 Lancashire Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2114	$1,995	$0.94	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $272,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $276,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $276,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    price $276,000
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $286,000 Active
16. 2004-03-03
    historical
17. 2004-02-27
    soldstatus $149,620
18. 2004-01-20
    listed $149,620
19. 2002-12-05
    soldstatus $147,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,480 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,258 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$778/yr (+$65/mo · 52.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,236
• − Property taxes: −$1,480
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,027
• − Management: −$2,027
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$7,913
• Taxable loss: −$5,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,302
• Household income: $72,184
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.90%
• Current HPI: 263.8901
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+87.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $276,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $286,000 realMLS
• 2004-03-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2004-02-27 Sold (MLS) $149,620 realMLS
• 2004-01-20 Listed $149,620 realMLS
• 2002-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $147,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2018): $1,480 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.